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Monthly Economic Update – June 2019

admin • July 30, 2019

In this month’s recap:

Stocks, gold, and oil all surge, a door opens for U.S.-China trade talks to resume, and the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish.

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

You could say June was a month of highs. The S&P 500 hit another record peak, oil prices reached year-to-date highs, and gold became more valuable than it had been in six years. (There was also a notable low during the month: the yield of the 10-year Treasury fell below 2%.) Also, a door opened to further trade talks with China, and the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of easing. For most investors, there was much to appreciate.1

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

On June 29, President Trump told reporters, gathered at the latest Group of 20 summit, that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning a resumption of formal trade negotiations between their respective nations. Additionally, President Trump said that the U.S. would refrain from imposing tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods for the “time being.” A six-week stalemate in trade talks had weighed on U.S. and foreign stock, bond, and commodities markets in May and June.2

The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone at its June meeting, but its newest policy statement and dot-plot forecast drew considerable attention. Among seventeen Fed officials, eight felt rate cuts would occur by the end of the year, eight saw no rate moves for the rest of the year, and just one saw a 2019 hike. The policy statement also removed reference to the Fed being “patient” about its stance on interest rates, and it mentioned economic and political “uncertainties” that may affect its near-term outlook. Stocks climbed after the announcement, and futures traders saw increased chances of a rate adjustment in either the third or fourth quarter.3

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the market on two other occasions during June. On June 4, stocks had their best day since January after he noted that the Fed was keeping a close eye on trade and tariff issues and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy. Stocks had their poorest day of the month on June 25 after Powell commented that there was no need to “overreact” to a “short-term swing in sentiment” or incoming data.4,5

Some of the latest data seemed to hint at economic deceleration. The much-watched Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector fell to a 19-month low of 52.1 in May. The latest Consumer Price Index showed less inflationary pressure; it had advanced 1.8% in the 12 months ending in May, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. The annualized pace of wholesale inflation dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.8% in May. Perhaps, most importantly, the economy added only 90,000 net new jobs in May, down from 205,000 a month before. (The main unemployment rate stayed at 3.6%; the U-6 rate, a broader measure which includes the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the job market, descended 0.2% to 7.1%.)6,7

Additionally, consumer confidence slipped. The Conference Board’s monthly index went from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June (admittedly, the index had climbed higher for three consecutive months). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index treaded water, ending June 0.3 points above its previous reading.8,9

There were also encouraging signs, however. Retail sales rose 0.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce recorded a healthy 0.4% May advance for personal spending. The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI rose 1.4 points to 56.9 in May.7,9

Early in the month, it seemed that trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were stalled. At the start of the month, President Trump proposed assessing tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese imports (and he also talked of imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico, though this did not happen in June). Some optimism returned for investors when a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled for the month-ending Group of 20 summit in Japan.8

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates fell in June. By the June 27 edition of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average interest on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.73%, compared with 3.99% on May 31. Rates for 15-year, fixed loans also descended in this timeframe, from 3.46% to 3.16%.17

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The latest data on home buying came from May. Existing home sales rose 2.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors – a nice change from the 0.4% decline in April. New home sales, unfortunately, slid 7.8% during May, and that followed a 3.7% April retreat.7

Home prices flattened in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. (Data for May arrives in July.) In year-over-year terms, prices were up 2.5%.7

Lastly, housing starts weakened 0.9% in May, according to the Census Bureau, but the pace of building permits issued increased 0.3%.7

LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD

The S&P surged 6.89% in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7.19%; the Nasdaq Composite, 7.42%. As the closing bell rang on the last market day of the month (June 28), the S&P settled at 2,941.76; the Nasdaq, at 8,006.24; the Dow, at 26,599.96.18,19,20

Prices of longer-term Treasuries rose in June, and correspondingly, their yields fell. On the first market day of the month (June 3), the yield on the 10-year note dipped under 2%; that had not happened since November 2016.21

All this greatly improved the year-to-date performance for these benchmarks. At the June 28 close, the S&P 500 was at +17.35% on the year; the Dow, +14.03%; the Nasdaq, +20.66%.18,19,20

This month, the current U.S. economic expansion became the longest on record. The economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter, by the assessment of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the BEA’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth is scheduled to appear July 26. The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting concludes on July 31.5,9

 

 

Disclosures

Securities and advisory services offered through Centaurus Financial, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, Registered Broker Dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Centaurus Financial Inc. and Five Pine Wealth Management are not affiliated. This is not an offer to sell securities, which may be done only after proper delivery of a prospectus and client suitability has been reviewed and determined. Information relating to securities is intended for use by individuals residing in (OR, OH, ID, CA, WA, MT, UT, NY). Centaurus Financial Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. A portion of this material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 – cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19] 2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/xi-trump-agree-to-restart-trade-talks-china-says [6/29/19] 3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/fed-scraps-patient-rate-approach-in-prelude-to-potential-cut [6/19/19] 4 – foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-june-4-2019 [6/4/19] 5 – apnews.com/36e95b56e88e444bb67d997b47b046d6 [5/29/19] 6 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-pain-led-by-south-korea-and-japan [6/3/19] 7 – investing.com/economic-calendar [6/28/19] 8 – thehill.com/policy/finance/450322-consumer-confidence-fell-in-june-amid-trump-tariff-threats-report [5/28/19] 9 – marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [6/28/19] 10 – global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx [6/25/19] 11 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ecb-seen-cutting-rates-in-september-as-draghi-reloads-stimulus [6/27/19] 12 – reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/boris-johnson-says-he-is-serious-about-no-deal-brexit-threat-idUSKCN1TP2SR [6/24/19] 13 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [6/28/19] 14 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [6/28/19] 15 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [6/28/19] 16 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [6/28/19] 17 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/27/19] 18 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp [6/29/19] 19 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [6/29/19] 20 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq [6/29/19] 21 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/28/19] 22 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy? Stay Invested, Stay Calm

June 20, 2025
When markets are calm, investing can feel easy. You contribute regularly, watch your portfolio grow, and start picturing that future vacation home or early retirement. But when markets get volatile, everything changes. Suddenly, headlines are full of dire warnings. Account balances fluctuate. And the urge to do something can feel overwhelming. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we understand how emotional investing can become during periods of market uncertainty. One of the most important things we do as fiduciary financial planners is to help our clients stay grounded when the market gets choppy. Let’s walk you through how we approach investment risk management and why having a clear, disciplined philosophy matters most when volatility strikes. Our Philosophy: Think Long-Term, Not Next Week When markets are moving fast, it is easy to think that the “best long-term investment strategy” must involve taking action to avoid losses or chase gains. The reality is usually the opposite. Reacting to market noise can often do more harm than good. In fact, one of the greatest risks to long-term returns is making emotional decisions in response to short-term events. We coach our clients to stay focused on their long-term financial plans and goals. Volatility is a feature of markets, not a flaw. By designing portfolios with realistic expectations for ups and downs, we help clients stay invested through all market environments. Here is what this looks like in practice: We use broadly diversified portfolios built around low-cost ETFs. We focus on asset allocation aligned with your time horizon, goals, and risk tolerance. We do not chase trends or attempt to time the market. We regularly review and rebalance portfolios based on your financial plan, not headlines. In short, your portfolio is designed to ride out volatility, not avoid it entirely. Fiduciary Financial Planning: Advice in Your Best Interest There is a great deal of noise in the financial world, particularly during turbulent market conditions. One of the most significant ways we help cut through it is by being fiduciary financial planners. That means we are legally and ethically obligated to act in your best interest at all times. We are also fee-only advisors. We do not receive commissions for recommending one investment over another. Our primary agenda is to help you reach your goals. During market volatility, this matters more than ever. Too many investors fall prey to sales pitches disguised as “solutions” to market risk. We focus on education and long-term planning rather than quick fixes. Being a fiduciary allows us to focus on what serves you best: Keeping you aligned with your personal goals and values Helping you tune out market noise and media hype Offering sound, research-backed guidance without conflicts of interest Your Coach Through Emotional Market Cycles One of our most important roles as financial planners is helping clients manage the psychological side of investing. It is one thing to know, intellectually, that markets will recover over time. It is another thing to watch your portfolio drop 15% and not feel anxious. Market downturns create powerful emotions. Fear. Doubt. Sometimes, even panic. As humans, our instinct is to take action to relieve those feelings, even when the logical course is to stay invested. That is where we come in. We help coach clients through these moments so they can avoid costly mistakes like: Selling during a downturn and locking in losses Chasing the next hot trend during a rebound Over-concentration in “safe” assets out of fear We remind clients that volatility is a normal part of the market. Markets have experienced recessions, wars, pandemics, and political turmoil before. They will again. Over time, markets have historically rewarded patient investors who stayed the course. When you work with us, you gain a trusted partner who is here to talk through your concerns, offer perspective, and help you make decisions that serve your long-term goals. Why Staying the Course Actually Works It may seem counterintuitive, but reducing activity during market volatility often yields better outcomes. Consider this: From 1999 through 2018, if an investor missed just the 10 best days in the S&P 500, their overall return would have been cut nearly in half . Many of the best market days happen very close to the worst ones. Trying to time the market is a challenging task, even for seasoned professionals. By maintaining a disciplined investment approach and staying fully invested, you ensure that you are there for both the recoveries and the long-term growth that markets provide. Our role is to help you build a portfolio designed for precisely this kind of staying power. We structure your investment mix to help you weather market cycles without having to guess what will happen next. Educating Clients About Normal Market Cycles Another key aspect of fiduciary financial planning is helping clients understand what is “normal” in the market. Volatility is not a sign that something is broken. It is a natural part of how markets function. In fact, without volatility, markets would not offer the returns that make long-term investing so powerful. We work with clients to help them see: Why some years will be down, but others will be very strong Why trying to avoid all losses is neither realistic nor necessary How staying invested through cycles often leads to far better outcomes than jumping in and out of the market Perspective is everything . The more you understand market behavior, the less likely you are to make emotional decisions during downturns. Different Stages, Same Principles Our approach also adapts to the varying needs of clients at different stages of their financial journey. For clients in their 40s to 60s: We may focus on prudently preserving and growing wealth. We help manage sequence-of-returns risk as you approach retirement. We may emphasize income planning and portfolio sustainability. We ensure that your investment mix aligns with your evolving goals and risk tolerance. For clients in their 30s: We provide education about typical market cycles (especially if this is their first experience with volatility). We coach clients to take advantage of their longer time horizons. We help younger investors see downturns as buying opportunities, not threats. In all cases, we are committed to helping clients invest with confidence, regardless of the headlines. Ready to Build a More Resilient Investment Strategy? Market volatility will always be part of investing, but it doesn't have to derail your financial goals. As your trusted financial advisor Coeur d'Alene team, we're here to help you navigate market uncertainty with confidence through our comprehensive financial planning approach. Contact Five Pine Wealth Management today to discuss how our investment philosophy and comprehensive financial planning approach can help you navigate market uncertainty with confidence. To see how we can help you support your financial goals, send us an email or call us at 877.333.1015.  Whether you're looking to preserve the wealth you've already accumulated or build a foundation for long-term growth, our team has the experience and commitment to help you stay focused on what matters most: achieving your financial goals.

From Full House to Financial Freedom: Smart Money Moves for Empty Nesters

May 23, 2025
The day your last child leaves home hits differently. It’s not just about the quiet hallways or fewer groceries in the cart. It’s the moment you realize that the life you’ve known for 20+ years is evolving into something new. For many, that change is deeply emotional. But it’s also a golden opportunity. At Five Pine Wealth Management, we work with parents who are entering this new season of life. Maybe you’re celebrating. Perhaps you’re feeling uncertain. Likely, you’re feeling a mix of both. This new chapter comes with financial freedom and decisions to match wherever you land. Let’s explore the smart financial moves you can make as empty nesters. Empty Nesters: A New Financial Season Meet Rob and Dana. After 25 years of raising three kids, their youngest finally left for college last fall. Their house, once bustling with backpacks, soccer cleats, and half-eaten cereal bowls, suddenly felt oversized and eerily quiet. They weren’t used to grocery bills being cut in half or weekends without games and activities. But what really surprised them? Just how much less money was going out each month. They came to us with a familiar feeling: a mix of excitement and uncertainty. "We think we're in a good place," Dana said. "But are we doing what we should be doing?" This is where a financial check-in becomes vital. With fewer day-to-day expenses and more flexibility, this is a time to refocus your finances. Here’s where to focus: Revisit your monthly budget. Your spending needs have probably changed. Without dependents at home, you may find new flexibility. Redirect those dollars toward long-term goals. Refresh your financial goals. That dream trip to Italy or the kitchen renovation you’ve put off? Let’s pencil it in, but also ensure your retirement accounts are getting the love they need. Update your estate plan. Now that the kids are young adults, your wills, healthcare directives, and beneficiaries may need adjusting. Freedom looks different for everyone, but for many, it starts with clarity. Pre-Retirement Planning: Your Next Big Financial Milestone For most empty nesters, retirement is no longer a distant concept—it’s getting real. Pre-retirement planning becomes a critical focus, especially in your late 40s to mid-60s. This is often the highest-earning period of your life and the sweet spot for pre-retirement planning. Here’s what we help our clients prioritize: Maximizing retirement contributions : As an empty nester, your cash flow could increase by 12% or more . Now’s the time to supercharge your 401(k), IRA, or other investment accounts with that extra cash. If you’re 50 or older, take advantage of catch-up contributions. Evaluating your risk exposure : Is your portfolio still aligned with your risk tolerance and timeline? Consider your tax strategy: With fewer deductions (like kids at home) and possibly a high-earning year, you may want to explore Roth conversions, charitable giving, or other tax-aware strategies. Running retirement projections : We help clients answer big-picture questions like: When can I retire? Will I have enough? What lifestyle can I realistically support? These aren’t always easy questions, but they’re essential. Planning for healthcare : Don’t wait until 65 to think about Medicare. Explore long-term care insurance and out-of-pocket expectations now. Rob and Dana sat down with us to run a retirement analysis. With only 8 years until Rob planned to retire, we helped them rebalance their portfolio to reduce risk, evaluate their pension and Social Security options, and make a plan to pay off their mortgage early. The result? They now have a clear retirement date and peace of mind. Should I Downsize My Home? One of the most common questions we get from empty nesters is, “Should I downsize my home?” It’s not just a financial question. It’s an emotional one, too. That house holds birthday parties, graduation photos on the stairs, and a dent in the drywall from a wild game of indoor tag. But it may also hold higher property taxes, more space than you use, and maintenance costs that don’t serve your current lifestyle. When deciding whether to downsize, we walk clients through: Total cost of ownership : What are you paying for the space? Emotional readiness : Are you ready to let go of the home? What would moving free up? : Cash for retirement? A move to your dream location? Family needs : Will your kids (or grandkids) be visiting regularly? Would a smaller home still support that? Downsizing doesn’t always mean moving into a tiny condo. Sometimes it means relocating to a one-level home with less yard or trading square footage for a better lifestyle. For Rob and Dana, downsizing meant moving to a townhome closer to their daughter and walkable to their favorite coffee shop, all while cutting their housing costs by nearly 35%. Give Yourself Permission to Dream Again One of our favorite things about working with empty nesters is helping them rediscover what they want. For years, life revolved around the kids. College tours. Dance recitals. Saturday mornings spent on the soccer sidelines. You were investing in their future. Now, it’s time to invest in yours. That might mean: Launching the business you put on hold Traveling during off-peak seasons (because you can!) Picking up a new hobby or volunteering more Creating a legacy through charitable giving or a family foundation Whatever it is, we want to help you align your money with your vision. Ready to Rethink the Next Chapter? This stage of life is full of opportunities, but it can also raise big questions. The good news is you don’t have to figure it all out on your own. Whether you're considering downsizing, exploring early retirement, or just want to know you’re on the right path, Five Pine Wealth Management is here to help you plan wisely, invest intentionally, and live fully.  Take advantage of this pivotal financial moment. Call (877.333.1015) or email us today to schedule your empty nester strategy session. The empty nest doesn't have to feel empty. It can be the launch pad for your next chapter of financial success.