Monthly Economic Update – June 2019

admin • July 30, 2019

In this month’s recap:

Stocks, gold, and oil all surge, a door opens for U.S.-China trade talks to resume, and the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish.

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

You could say June was a month of highs. The S&P 500 hit another record peak, oil prices reached year-to-date highs, and gold became more valuable than it had been in six years. (There was also a notable low during the month: the yield of the 10-year Treasury fell below 2%.) Also, a door opened to further trade talks with China, and the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of easing. For most investors, there was much to appreciate.1

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

On June 29, President Trump told reporters, gathered at the latest Group of 20 summit, that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning a resumption of formal trade negotiations between their respective nations. Additionally, President Trump said that the U.S. would refrain from imposing tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods for the “time being.” A six-week stalemate in trade talks had weighed on U.S. and foreign stock, bond, and commodities markets in May and June.2

The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone at its June meeting, but its newest policy statement and dot-plot forecast drew considerable attention. Among seventeen Fed officials, eight felt rate cuts would occur by the end of the year, eight saw no rate moves for the rest of the year, and just one saw a 2019 hike. The policy statement also removed reference to the Fed being “patient” about its stance on interest rates, and it mentioned economic and political “uncertainties” that may affect its near-term outlook. Stocks climbed after the announcement, and futures traders saw increased chances of a rate adjustment in either the third or fourth quarter.3

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the market on two other occasions during June. On June 4, stocks had their best day since January after he noted that the Fed was keeping a close eye on trade and tariff issues and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy. Stocks had their poorest day of the month on June 25 after Powell commented that there was no need to “overreact” to a “short-term swing in sentiment” or incoming data.4,5

Some of the latest data seemed to hint at economic deceleration. The much-watched Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector fell to a 19-month low of 52.1 in May. The latest Consumer Price Index showed less inflationary pressure; it had advanced 1.8% in the 12 months ending in May, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. The annualized pace of wholesale inflation dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.8% in May. Perhaps, most importantly, the economy added only 90,000 net new jobs in May, down from 205,000 a month before. (The main unemployment rate stayed at 3.6%; the U-6 rate, a broader measure which includes the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the job market, descended 0.2% to 7.1%.)6,7

Additionally, consumer confidence slipped. The Conference Board’s monthly index went from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June (admittedly, the index had climbed higher for three consecutive months). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index treaded water, ending June 0.3 points above its previous reading.8,9

There were also encouraging signs, however. Retail sales rose 0.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce recorded a healthy 0.4% May advance for personal spending. The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI rose 1.4 points to 56.9 in May.7,9

Early in the month, it seemed that trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were stalled. At the start of the month, President Trump proposed assessing tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese imports (and he also talked of imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico, though this did not happen in June). Some optimism returned for investors when a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled for the month-ending Group of 20 summit in Japan.8

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates fell in June. By the June 27 edition of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average interest on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.73%, compared with 3.99% on May 31. Rates for 15-year, fixed loans also descended in this timeframe, from 3.46% to 3.16%.17

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The latest data on home buying came from May. Existing home sales rose 2.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors – a nice change from the 0.4% decline in April. New home sales, unfortunately, slid 7.8% during May, and that followed a 3.7% April retreat.7

Home prices flattened in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. (Data for May arrives in July.) In year-over-year terms, prices were up 2.5%.7

Lastly, housing starts weakened 0.9% in May, according to the Census Bureau, but the pace of building permits issued increased 0.3%.7

LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD

The S&P surged 6.89% in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7.19%; the Nasdaq Composite, 7.42%. As the closing bell rang on the last market day of the month (June 28), the S&P settled at 2,941.76; the Nasdaq, at 8,006.24; the Dow, at 26,599.96.18,19,20

Prices of longer-term Treasuries rose in June, and correspondingly, their yields fell. On the first market day of the month (June 3), the yield on the 10-year note dipped under 2%; that had not happened since November 2016.21

All this greatly improved the year-to-date performance for these benchmarks. At the June 28 close, the S&P 500 was at +17.35% on the year; the Dow, +14.03%; the Nasdaq, +20.66%.18,19,20

This month, the current U.S. economic expansion became the longest on record. The economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter, by the assessment of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the BEA’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth is scheduled to appear July 26. The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting concludes on July 31.5,9

 

 

Disclosures

Securities and advisory services offered through Centaurus Financial, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, Registered Broker Dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Centaurus Financial Inc. and Five Pine Wealth Management are not affiliated. This is not an offer to sell securities, which may be done only after proper delivery of a prospectus and client suitability has been reviewed and determined. Information relating to securities is intended for use by individuals residing in (OR, OH, ID, CA, WA, MT, UT, NY). Centaurus Financial Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. A portion of this material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 – cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19] 2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/xi-trump-agree-to-restart-trade-talks-china-says [6/29/19] 3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/fed-scraps-patient-rate-approach-in-prelude-to-potential-cut [6/19/19] 4 – foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-june-4-2019 [6/4/19] 5 – apnews.com/36e95b56e88e444bb67d997b47b046d6 [5/29/19] 6 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-pain-led-by-south-korea-and-japan [6/3/19] 7 – investing.com/economic-calendar [6/28/19] 8 – thehill.com/policy/finance/450322-consumer-confidence-fell-in-june-amid-trump-tariff-threats-report [5/28/19] 9 – marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [6/28/19] 10 – global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx [6/25/19] 11 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ecb-seen-cutting-rates-in-september-as-draghi-reloads-stimulus [6/27/19] 12 – reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/boris-johnson-says-he-is-serious-about-no-deal-brexit-threat-idUSKCN1TP2SR [6/24/19] 13 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [6/28/19] 14 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [6/28/19] 15 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [6/28/19] 16 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [6/28/19] 17 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/27/19] 18 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp [6/29/19] 19 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [6/29/19] 20 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq [6/29/19] 21 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/28/19] 22 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

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February 26, 2026
Key Takeaways PERSI provides guaranteed lifetime income, with most retirees recovering their entire contribution within 3.5 years of retirement. PERSI by itself usually isn't enough. The most secure retirement comes from combining your pension with Social Security, IRAs, and your own savings. Your distribution option choice is permanent and irrevocable — choosing the right survivor benefit can protect your spouse or maximize your monthly payment. If you’re a teacher, first responder, or public employee in Idaho, you’ve heard about PERSI, the Public Employee Retirement System of Idaho. You contribute to it with every paycheck, often before you even notice the money is gone. But do you actually understand how it works and what it means for your retirement? You're not alone if the answer is "not really." Most public employees know they have PERSI, but they're fuzzy on the details. How much will you actually get? When can you retire? What's this "Rule of 90" everyone mentions? And most importantly, how does your PERSI pension fit together with your 401(k), IRA, and Social Security? Let's break it down so you can make informed decisions about your retirement future. What is PERSI? PERSI is Idaho's defined benefit pension plan for public employees. If you work 20 hours or more per week for a qualifying public employer — school districts, fire departments, state agencies, and more — you're automatically enrolled in the PERSI Base Plan. What makes it different from your 401(k) or IRA is that it is a defined benefit plan (pension), not just a retirement savings account. This difference is important. With a 401(k) or IRA, you contribute money, it grows (or doesn't, depending on the market), and eventually you withdraw it. You bear all the investment risk, and you're responsible for making your money last through retirement. With PERSI, you're earning a guaranteed monthly payment for life once you retire. The state invests your contributions and your employer's contributions, manages the investment risk, and promises you a specific benefit based on a formula tied to your salary and years of service. You can think of it as a mix between the old pension plans your grandparents may have had and today’s 401(k) system. You contribute, unlike traditional pensions, where only the employer paid in, but you also get guaranteed lifetime income, unlike 401(k)s, where you might outlive your savings. PERSI Contribution Rates With every paycheck, a portion of your gross salary automatically goes to your PERSI Base Plan. You don't get a choice about this. It’s required if you qualify for PERSI. Your employer also adds a percentage of your salary. The current contribution rates are: Public Safety School Employee General Member Employee rate 10.83% 8.08% 7.18% Employer rate 14.65% 13.48% 11.96% Let's say you earn $60,000 a year as a teacher. You're contributing $4,848 annually to PERSI, and your district is adding another $8,088. That's $12,936 going into the system on your behalf every single year. Unlike a 401(k), where you choose your investments, PERSI puts these contributions into a professionally managed fund. You do not pick stocks or bonds. Investment professionals handle that to make sure the fund can meet its future promises to retirees. Using the PERSI Retirement Calculator The PERSI retirement calculator, available at persi.idaho.gov , lets you model different retirement scenarios based on your age, salary, and years of service. The calculator shows what your monthly benefit would be if you retire at different ages. It's worth spending 15 minutes playing with the numbers. You might be surprised at how much your monthly payment changes based on when you retire. Many public employees in their 50s are surprised when they use the calculator and see their pension might be smaller than expected, or sometimes better than they feared. Either way, it is better to find out now than just a few years before you want to retire. The Retirement Age Rules You Need to Know About PERSI has very specific rules on retirement age. You must understand these rules because they determine when you can retire. Option 1: Age 65 (Age 60 for Public Safety) You can retire with full PERSI benefits at age 65 (or age 60 for public safety employees), regardless of how long you've worked. Even if you have only 5 years of credited service, you're eligible at 65. Option 2: The Rule of 90/80 This is the rule most public employees bank on for early retirement. To qualify, you need to meet all three of these requirements: You're at least 55 years old (50 for public safety employees) You have at least 60 months (5 years) of credited service Your age plus years of service equals 90 or more (80 for public safety employees) If you retire before meeting the service age requirement or the Rule of 90/80, your retirement benefit will be reduced. Here are some examples: Jennifer is a teacher and is 58 years old. She has 32 years of service. 58 + 32 = 90 → full retirement Martin is a firefighter with 30 years of service. He is 50 years old. 50 + 30 = 80 → full retirement Both Jennifer and Martin are eligible for full retirement based on the Rule of 90/80. If you meet the Rule of 90/80, you may be able to retire earlier than age 65 or 60. This can have a big impact on: Your lifetime benefit Your bridge strategy to Social Security How much you need to draw from other accounts How Your PERSI Benefit Is Calculated Your monthly PERSI payment isn't a guess. It's based on a specific formula: Average Monthly Salary × 2% (2.3% for public safety) × Months of Credited Service Let's break down each piece: Average Monthly Salary: PERSI looks at your highest consecutive 42 months of salary (that's 3.5 years). This is usually your final years of work when you're earning the most. If your highest 42 months averaged $5,000 per month, that's the number used in the formula. The 2% (or 2.3%) Multiplier: This is fixed. For each month of service, you earn 2% (or 2.3%) of your average monthly salary. Months of Credited Service: Every month you work and contribute to PERSI counts. Thirty years equals 360 months. If you took a few years off and came back to public service, only the months you actually contributed count. Now let’s look at a real example: Let's say you're a teacher whose highest 42 months averaged $6,250 per month, and you have 30 years (360 months) of service: $6,250 × 0.02 × 360 = $45,000 per year, or $3,750 per month That's your guaranteed monthly payment for life, starting when you retire. It will also receive cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) over time to help keep pace with inflation. Here's an interesting fact: based on historical data, most retirees make back every dollar they personally contributed to PERSI within approximately 3.5 years of receiving benefits. After that, all payments come from the investment returns on contributions and your employer's contributions. If you retire at 60 and live to 90, you will get 30 years of monthly payments. Even if you only contributed for 25 years, you would still receive benefits for more than 30 years. This shows the value of a defined benefit pension. PERSI Distribution Options: A Critical Decision When you retire, you'll need to choose how to receive your PERSI benefit. This decision is permanent and irrevocable, so you need to understand your options: Regular Retirement (Full Benefit) You receive the full monthly benefit under the formula discussed above, and payments continue for your lifetime. When you die, payments stop. Nothing goes to a spouse or beneficiary. This option gives you the highest monthly payment, but it offers no protection for your spouse if you die first. Option 1: 100% Survivor Benefit You receive a reduced monthly benefit, but when you die, your contingent annuitant (usually your spouse) continues receiving 100% of that same reduced benefit for the rest of their life. This option typically reduces your benefit by about 10-15% from the full amount, but provides maximum protection for your spouse. Example : Instead of $4,000 per month under Regular Retirement, you might receive $3,400 per month. If you die, your spouse continues receiving $3,400 per month for life. Option 2: 50% Survivor Benefit You receive a smaller reduction to your monthly benefit, and when you die, your contingent annuitant receives 50% of your reduced benefit for their lifetime. This is a middle option. It reduces your payment less than Option 1, but also gives your spouse less protection. Example : Instead of $4,000 per month, you might receive $3,640 per month. If you die, your spouse receives $1,832 per month for life. Lump Sum Distribution You can take all of your employee contributions plus interest as a lump sum and forgo the monthly pension entirely. This is almost always a bad idea. You would lose the employer contributions, which are usually 60% or more of the total, and the guaranteed lifetime income. Most financial advisors would tell you to avoid this option unless you have a very unusual situation. Which Option Is Right for You? This depends heavily on your personal situation: Are you married? If so, you should seriously consider Option 1 or Option 2 to protect your spouse. If you're single with no dependents, Regular Retirement makes sense. What's your spouse's financial situation? If they have their own substantial pension or retirement savings, they may not need 100% of your benefit. If they'll depend on your pension as their primary income source, Option 1 is crucial. What's your health status? If you have serious health issues and don't expect to live long in retirement, that changes the calculation. But be careful about betting against yourself living longer than expected. Do you have life insurance? Some retirees take the full benefit (Regular Retirement) and use a portion of it to pay for life insurance that would provide a death benefit to their spouse. This can work, but requires careful analysis. This decision is complex enough that it's worth sitting down with a financial advisor who understands pension planning. The right choice could mean tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars difference over your combined lifetimes. How PERSI Fits Into Your Complete Retirement Picture PERSI alone probably won't fund the retirement you're dreaming about. According to retirement research , the average retiree's income comes from multiple sources: Social Security, pension income, and personal savings (401(k)s, IRAs, and other investments). Very few people retire comfortably on a single income source. Your Retirement Income Streams Think of retirement income as a three- or four-legged stool: Leg 1: PERSI Pension – Your guaranteed monthly payment for life based on your years of service and salary. Leg 2: Social Security – Another guaranteed monthly payment based on your lifetime earnings. Most teachers and public employees also earn Social Security credits unless they're in a position that doesn't pay into Social Security. Leg 3: Personal Savings – Your PERSI Choice 401(k), traditional IRA, Roth IRA, or other retirement accounts you've funded over the years. Leg 4: Other Assets – Rental properties, taxable brokerage accounts, a business you might sell, or other investments. The best retirement plans have at least three of these sources, and ideally all four. PERSI gives you a strong base, but it shouldn't be your only plan. Why You Still Need to Save Outside of PERSI Let's say your PERSI benefit will be $4,000 per month, and your Social Security will add another $2,500. That's $6,500 per month, or $78,000 per year. Is that enough? Maybe. But: What if you want to travel extensively in your early retirement years? What about healthcare costs before Medicare kicks in at 65? What if you need long-term care later in life? What about leaving something to your children or grandchildren? What if inflation erodes your purchasing power more than the COLAs can keep up with? This is why financial advisors suggest having personal savings in addition to your pension. Even if your PERSI benefit is generous, having $500,000 or $1 million in a 401(k) or IRA gives you more flexibility and security than a pension alone. The PERSI Choice 401(k): Should You Contribute? In addition to the mandatory PERSI Base Plan, you have access to the PERSI Choice 401(k) — a voluntary defined contribution plan where you can contribute additional money for retirement. For 2026, you can contribute up to $24,500 annually ($32,500 if you're 50 or older with catch-up contributions). These contributions are tax-deferred, meaning they reduce your taxable income now and grow tax-free until withdrawal. Should You Use It? The PERSI Choice 401(k) can be valuable: Pros: Higher contribution limits than an IRA ($24,500 vs. $7,500 for 2026) Automatic payroll deduction makes saving easier Tax-deferred growth Loans may be available if you need emergency access Keeps your retirement savings in one place alongside your pension Cons: No employer match Limited investment options compared to an IRA Fees may be higher than low-cost IRA options Early withdrawal penalties before age 59½ Traditional IRA vs. Roth IRA: Which Is Better for PERSI Members? Beyond your PERSI plans, you should consider opening an IRA to supplement your retirement savings. The choice between traditional and Roth depends on your situation. Traditional IRA Contributions may be tax-deductible (depending on your income) Money grows tax-deferred Withdrawals in retirement are taxed as ordinary income 2026 contribution limit: $7,500 ($8,600 if 50+) Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) start at age 73 Roth IRA Contributions are made with after-tax dollars (no deduction) Money grows tax-free Withdrawals in retirement are completely tax-free 2026 contribution limit: $7,500 ($8,600 if 50+) No RMDs during your lifetime Income limits apply (phase-out begins at $153,000 for single filers, $242,000 for married filing jointly in 2026) Which Makes Sense for You? Here's our thinking for PERSI members specifically: Consider a Roth IRA if: You're earlier in your career and currently in a lower tax bracket You expect your pension + Social Security to push you into a higher bracket in retirement You want tax-free income to supplement your taxable pension payments You want flexibility (Roth contributions can be withdrawn anytime without penalty) Consider a Traditional IRA if: You want the tax deduction now to reduce current taxes You expect to be in a lower tax bracket in retirement You're maxing out other retirement accounts and want additional tax-deferred space For many teachers and public employees, a Roth IRA is a smart choice because their PERSI pension already gives them a base of taxable income. Having tax-free money in a Roth IRA gives you more control over your taxes in retirement. Imagine being able to take $20,000 from your Roth IRA for a special trip without bumping yourself into a higher tax bracket or triggering taxation on more of your Social Security benefits. That's the power of tax diversification. How Five Pine Wealth Management Helps PERSI is a valuable benefit and is often one of the best parts of working in public service in Idaho. The guaranteed lifetime income it provides is becoming rare in today’s retirement world. But PERSI by itself is not a complete retirement plan. It is a critical foundation, but still just one part of the bigger picture. Understanding how PERSI works, when you can retire, how your benefit is calculated, and what distribution option makes sense for your family puts you in control of your retirement future. Combining your PERSI pension with smart use of Social Security, continued savings in IRAs and 401(k)s, and strategic planning around taxes and healthcare gives you the best chance of living the retirement you've earned. You've spent 20, 30, or more years serving your community as a teacher, first responder, or public employee. You've earned this retirement. Take the time now to understand your benefits, make informed decisions, and build a plan that works for you and your family. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we specialize in helping Idaho public employees navigate their retirement planning, including understanding how PERSI fits into your complete financial picture. You've put in the years. Now let's make sure your retirement plan reflects that. If you have questions about your PERSI options, want to run the numbers together, or just want a second set of eyes on your plan, we'd love to chat. Reach out at info@fivepinewealth.com or give us a call at 877.333.1015. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Can I rely on PERSI alone for retirement? A: PERSI provides a strong lifetime income, but most retirees still need other savings to cover taxes, inflation, and discretionary spending. Q: What’s the difference between the PERSI Base Plan and the PERSI Choice 401(k)? A: The Base Plan is a pension that pays income for life, while the Choice 401(k) is an optional account you control and invest yourself. Q: What happens to my PERSI if I change jobs within Idaho public service?  A: Nothing. Your service credit automatically carries over between PERSI employers as long as you don’t withdraw your funds.
February 19, 2026
Key Takeaways Paying off your mortgage before retirement reduces monthly expenses, lowers your income needs, and provides psychological peace of mind, but ties up money in an illiquid asset. Keeping your mortgage and investing instead may provide higher long-term returns, better liquidity, and tax advantages, but requires comfort with debt and market volatility. Your mortgage interest rate, risk tolerance, retirement timeline, and other income sources should all factor into your decision. A hybrid approach — paying down part of the mortgage while keeping some money invested — can provide a balance between security and growth potential. At 58, let's say your mortgage balance is $180,000. Your retirement accounts have grown to $850,000. So now you’re wondering: should I just pay off this mortgage and be done with it? We have this conversation regularly with clients in their late 50s and early 60s. Some choose to go ahead and pay off their mortgage. Others keep it and invest the difference. There’s nothing wrong with either choice, but what’s right for you depends on your specific situation. We’re here to walk you through how to think about this decision: The Case for Paying Off Your Mortgage Before Retirement There’s something undeniably satisfying about owning your home outright. Beyond the emotional relief, there are practical reasons that make sense: Reduced monthly expenses in retirement. Housing is typically your highest fixed cost. Eliminating that payment frees up cash flow for other priorities, like travel, healthcare, and helping the grandkids with college tuition. Lower income needs mean lower taxes. When you don’t have a mortgage payment, you don’t need to withdraw as much from retirement accounts. Smaller withdrawals often mean staying in lower tax brackets and (potentially) reducing Medicare premiums. Peace of mind during market downturns. If we hit a recession early in your retirement, having no mortgage means you won’t feel pressured to sell investments at depressed prices to cover housing costs. Guaranteed return on your money. Paying off a 4% mortgage is like earning a guaranteed 4% return (tax implications aside). We had a client who paid off her $220,000 mortgage at 59. Mathematically, she probably could have earned more by investing that money. But her reasoning made sense for her, “My parents stressed about money their whole retirement. I don’t want that. I want to know that my house is paid for, no matter what happens.” For her, the psychological benefit outweighed the potential investment returns. The Case for Keeping Your Mortgage and Investing Instead For others in their late 50s, keeping the mortgage and investing that money elsewhere makes more financial sense: Higher potential investment returns. If your mortgage rate is 3-4% and you can reasonably expect 6-8% average returns from your diversified investment portfolio over time, the math favors investing. Maintain liquidity and flexibility. Money tied up in home equity isn’t easily accessible. You’ll have more options if that money is in investment accounts rather than in illiquid home equity. Tax advantages of mortgage interest. If you itemize deductions, you might still benefit from the mortgage interest deduction, which reduces the effective cost of your mortgage. Inflation works in your favor. Your mortgage payment stays the same while everything else gets more expensive. In 10 years, your $2,000 payment will feel smaller relative to other expenses. We worked with a couple who were considering paying off their $300k mortgage at age 57. Their mortgage rate was 3.25%, they were in a high tax bracket, and they had at least twenty years of retirement ahead. They decided to keep the mortgage and invest instead. Five years later, their investment account had grown enough that they could pay off the mortgage if they chose to, while still having substantial assets left over. The Middle Ground: A Hybrid Approach You don't have to choose all-or-nothing. Some clients find that a combination works best: Pay down part of the mortgage . Reduce your balance and shave a few years off your repayment timeline while maintaining some liquidity. Recasting and refinancing options can also lower your monthly payment. Plan for a future payoff . Keep the mortgage while you're still working and in higher tax brackets. Then plan to pay it off in a few years when you retire and your income drops. Use bonus income strategically . Consider using windfalls, bonuses, inheritance, business sale proceeds, to pay down the mortgage while keeping your regular savings and investments intact. How to Think Through Your Decision Here's how to evaluate the mortgage payoff vs investing decision for your situation: What's your mortgage interest rate? Below 4%, the mathematical case for keeping it gets stronger. Above 5%, paying it off starts looking more attractive. How much liquid savings do you have? If paying off your mortgage would drain your emergency fund or leave you with little accessible cash, that's a red flag. What's your risk tolerance? Be honest. If having a mortgage payment keeps you up at night, no investment return will make up for that stress. What are your other retirement income sources? Social Security, pension, rental income — these reliable sources might make carrying a mortgage more manageable than you think. When Paying Off Makes Sense Based on our experience, paying off your mortgage before retirement tends to work best when: Your mortgage interest rate is relatively high (5%+) You'd still have 6-12 months of expenses in emergency savings after payoff You're naturally debt-averse, and the monthly payment creates genuine anxiety You have other sources of retirement income You plan to stay in this home for the foreseeable future When Keeping Your Mortgage Makes Sense Keeping your mortgage and investing instead usually works better when: Your interest rate is low (below 4%) You're in a high tax bracket where the mortgage interest deduction provides value You have a long time horizon (20+ years of retirement ahead) You're comfortable with investment volatility You want flexibility and liquidity in your financial plan Getting Help With Your Decision At Five Pine Wealth Management , we help clients work through these decisions regularly. We review your complete financial situation, run the numbers, and help you understand the trade-offs so you can make a confident decision. A good financial advisor can run projections showing both scenarios, factor in your complete financial picture, help you stress-test different economic scenarios, and integrate this decision with your broader retirement, tax, and estate planning strategies. Whether you decide to pay off your mortgage or keep it and invest, what matters most is that the choice aligns with your goals, risk tolerance, and peace of mind. If you're wrestling with the mortgage payoff vs. investing question and want to talk through your specific situation, we're here to help. Call us at 877.333.1015 or email info@fivepinewealth.com . Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Should I use my 401(k) to pay off my mortgage? A: Generally, no. Withdrawing from retirement accounts before 59½ triggers penalties. Later, large withdrawals can push you into higher tax brackets. If you want to pay off your mortgage, it's usually better to use funds from taxable investment accounts or savings rather than tapping tax-advantaged retirement accounts. Q: What if I want to downsize in a few years anyway? A: If you plan to sell and move to a smaller home within 3-5 years, keeping your mortgage makes more sense. You'd be paying it off only to sell shortly after, and that money could work harder for you in investments until you make your move. Q: Can I change my mind later if I keep the mortgage?  A: Yes, you can always pay it off later if your circumstances or feelings change. Once you pay it off, however, accessing that equity again (without selling) typically requires a new loan or a home equity line of credit, which isn't always simple or cheap.