Monthly Economic Update – June 2019

admin • July 30, 2019

In this month’s recap:

Stocks, gold, and oil all surge, a door opens for U.S.-China trade talks to resume, and the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish.

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

You could say June was a month of highs. The S&P 500 hit another record peak, oil prices reached year-to-date highs, and gold became more valuable than it had been in six years. (There was also a notable low during the month: the yield of the 10-year Treasury fell below 2%.) Also, a door opened to further trade talks with China, and the latest monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of easing. For most investors, there was much to appreciate.1

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

On June 29, President Trump told reporters, gathered at the latest Group of 20 summit, that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping were planning a resumption of formal trade negotiations between their respective nations. Additionally, President Trump said that the U.S. would refrain from imposing tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods for the “time being.” A six-week stalemate in trade talks had weighed on U.S. and foreign stock, bond, and commodities markets in May and June.2

The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate alone at its June meeting, but its newest policy statement and dot-plot forecast drew considerable attention. Among seventeen Fed officials, eight felt rate cuts would occur by the end of the year, eight saw no rate moves for the rest of the year, and just one saw a 2019 hike. The policy statement also removed reference to the Fed being “patient” about its stance on interest rates, and it mentioned economic and political “uncertainties” that may affect its near-term outlook. Stocks climbed after the announcement, and futures traders saw increased chances of a rate adjustment in either the third or fourth quarter.3

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also moved the market on two other occasions during June. On June 4, stocks had their best day since January after he noted that the Fed was keeping a close eye on trade and tariff issues and would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” of the economy. Stocks had their poorest day of the month on June 25 after Powell commented that there was no need to “overreact” to a “short-term swing in sentiment” or incoming data.4,5

Some of the latest data seemed to hint at economic deceleration. The much-watched Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for the factory sector fell to a 19-month low of 52.1 in May. The latest Consumer Price Index showed less inflationary pressure; it had advanced 1.8% in the 12 months ending in May, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. The annualized pace of wholesale inflation dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.8% in May. Perhaps, most importantly, the economy added only 90,000 net new jobs in May, down from 205,000 a month before. (The main unemployment rate stayed at 3.6%; the U-6 rate, a broader measure which includes the underemployed and those who have dropped out of the job market, descended 0.2% to 7.1%.)6,7

Additionally, consumer confidence slipped. The Conference Board’s monthly index went from 131.3 in May to 121.5 in June (admittedly, the index had climbed higher for three consecutive months). The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index treaded water, ending June 0.3 points above its previous reading.8,9

There were also encouraging signs, however. Retail sales rose 0.5% in May, according to the Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce recorded a healthy 0.4% May advance for personal spending. The ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI rose 1.4 points to 56.9 in May.7,9

Early in the month, it seemed that trade negotiations between China and the U.S. were stalled. At the start of the month, President Trump proposed assessing tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese imports (and he also talked of imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods from Mexico, though this did not happen in June). Some optimism returned for investors when a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled for the month-ending Group of 20 summit in Japan.8

REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates fell in June. By the June 27 edition of the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average interest on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan was 3.73%, compared with 3.99% on May 31. Rates for 15-year, fixed loans also descended in this timeframe, from 3.46% to 3.16%.17

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The latest data on home buying came from May. Existing home sales rose 2.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors – a nice change from the 0.4% decline in April. New home sales, unfortunately, slid 7.8% during May, and that followed a 3.7% April retreat.7

Home prices flattened in April, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index. (Data for May arrives in July.) In year-over-year terms, prices were up 2.5%.7

Lastly, housing starts weakened 0.9% in May, according to the Census Bureau, but the pace of building permits issued increased 0.3%.7

LOOKING BACK AND LOOKING FORWARD

The S&P surged 6.89% in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7.19%; the Nasdaq Composite, 7.42%. As the closing bell rang on the last market day of the month (June 28), the S&P settled at 2,941.76; the Nasdaq, at 8,006.24; the Dow, at 26,599.96.18,19,20

Prices of longer-term Treasuries rose in June, and correspondingly, their yields fell. On the first market day of the month (June 3), the yield on the 10-year note dipped under 2%; that had not happened since November 2016.21

All this greatly improved the year-to-date performance for these benchmarks. At the June 28 close, the S&P 500 was at +17.35% on the year; the Dow, +14.03%; the Nasdaq, +20.66%.18,19,20

This month, the current U.S. economic expansion became the longest on record. The economy grew 3.1% in the first quarter, by the assessment of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; the BEA’s initial estimate of Q2 economic growth is scheduled to appear July 26. The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting concludes on July 31.5,9

 

 

Disclosures

Securities and advisory services offered through Centaurus Financial, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, Registered Broker Dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Centaurus Financial Inc. and Five Pine Wealth Management are not affiliated. This is not an offer to sell securities, which may be done only after proper delivery of a prospectus and client suitability has been reviewed and determined. Information relating to securities is intended for use by individuals residing in (OR, OH, ID, CA, WA, MT, UT, NY). Centaurus Financial Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. A portion of this material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 – cnbc.com/2019/06/21/it-was-a-monumental-week-for-markets-with-major-milestones-in-stocks-bonds-gold-and-oil.html [6/21/19] 2 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-29/xi-trump-agree-to-restart-trade-talks-china-says [6/29/19] 3 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-19/fed-scraps-patient-rate-approach-in-prelude-to-potential-cut [6/19/19] 4 – foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-wall-street-june-4-2019 [6/4/19] 5 – apnews.com/36e95b56e88e444bb67d997b47b046d6 [5/29/19] 6 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/asia-factories-feel-trade-war-pain-led-by-south-korea-and-japan [6/3/19] 7 – investing.com/economic-calendar [6/28/19] 8 – thehill.com/policy/finance/450322-consumer-confidence-fell-in-june-amid-trump-tariff-threats-report [5/28/19] 9 – marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [6/28/19] 10 – global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-banks.aspx [6/25/19] 11 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-27/ecb-seen-cutting-rates-in-september-as-draghi-reloads-stimulus [6/27/19] 12 – reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson/boris-johnson-says-he-is-serious-about-no-deal-brexit-threat-idUSKCN1TP2SR [6/24/19] 13 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [6/28/19] 14 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [6/28/19] 15 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [6/28/19] 16 – marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [6/28/19] 17 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [6/27/19] 18 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp [6/29/19] 19 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [6/29/19] 20 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq [6/29/19] 21 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [6/28/19] 22 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18]

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What's Inside Your 457? (And Why It Matters More Than You Think)

April 30, 2026
Key Takeaways Your 457 should work alongside your pension to support your overall retirement income plan. Many 457 plans are set on autopilot, but your investments shouldn’t stay that way as you near retirement. Understanding what you're invested in helps you make better decisions when markets move. Turning 50 is your signal to review your 457 more closely so you can check your contributions, risk level, and how it fits with your pension before retirement gets too close. Like many first responders in Washington and Idaho, you probably have a pretty solid grasp of your "Plan A." Between the WA LEOFF Plan 2 or ID PERSI, you’ve spent your career earning a guaranteed monthly pension. It’s the foundation of your retirement — the steady paycheck that arrives regardless of what the stock market does. But then there’s that "other" account. The one you’ve been tucking money into every pay period through deferred compensation. In Washington, it’s usually the Washington State Deferred Compensation Program (WSDCP); in Idaho, it’s often the State of Idaho 457(b) Plan. When we sit down with firefighters and police officers who are within 10 years of their "end of watch" date, they usually know two things about this account: how much is in it and that they’re glad they started it. But when we ask, 'What is that money actually doing?' — that question usually gets a pause. If you’re 50 or older, it’s time to move past the "set it and forget it" mentality. Let’s take a look at how your 457 works and how to make sure it’s working for you. 457 Plan Investment Options  Unlike your pension, which is managed by the state, your 457 is a “defined contribution” plan. That means the outcome depends entirely on how much you put in and how those funds are invested. A 457 plan is just a container. Think of it like a toolbox. What matters is what’s inside the box. Your account isn’t sitting in cash (at least it shouldn’t be). It’s invested in a mix of underlying funds, usually including: Stock funds (equities): These are your growth engines. They tend to go up over time, but they can be volatile. These could be U.S. stock funds or international funds. Bond funds (fixed income): These provide stability and income, but with historically reduced long-term returns. Stable value or cash equivalents: Lower risk, but also lower growth. Most public service 457 plans in the Northwest offer a menu of these options. Some people choose to build their own mix, while others choose a single “all-in-one” fund and let it do the work. This brings us to the most common choice we see… What is a Target-Date Fund? A Target-Date Fund (TDF) is designed to be a one-stop shop. The “date” in the name is the year the fund assumes you will retire. If you plan to hang up the uniform in 2030, you’d likely be in a 2030 fund. A TDF automatically shifts its risk level as you get closer to that date. This is called the glide path . When you are 20 years away from retirement, the fund is aggressive. It buys mostly stocks because you have time to recover from market crashes. As you get closer to the target year, the fund manager automatically “glides” the investments away from risky stocks and into “safer” bonds and cash. TDFs are built for the “average” American worker who relies solely on Social Security and a 401(k), but you aren’t the average worker. You have a LEOFF or PERSI pension. Because your pension acts like a “super bond” (stable, guaranteed income), being too conservative in your 457 might hinder your growth. Conversely, if you’re planning to retire at 53 (common for LEOFF 2) but your fund is target age 65, you might be taking way more risk than you realize. It’s also important to note that two funds with the same year, for example, 2035, can have very different levels of risk depending on the provider. One may still hold 60% in stocks near retirement, while another might be closer to 40%. How Risk Changes as Retirement Approaches In your 20s, 30s, and even early 40s, “risk” is your friend. Risk is what grows a $50,000 account into a $500,000 account. However, as you approach the age of 50, the definition of risk changes. That’s because you’re entering what we call the “retirement red zone,” roughly five years before and five years after your retirement date. This is when: Your portfolio is at its largest You have less time to recover from downturns You may soon rely on the money for income We look at two specific types of risk for our clients: Sequence of Returns Risk: The risk that a market crash occurs just as you start taking withdrawals. If the market drops 20% the year you retire, and you start pulling money out to travel or pay off the mortgage, your account may never recover. Inflation Risk: If you get scared and move everything into the “Fixed Account” or “Stable Value Fund,” you might not lose money, but you’ll lose purchasing power. If your account earns 2% but the cost of living goes up by 4%, you’re technically getting poorer every year. Finding the “Goldilocks” zone — not too hot, not too cold — is the primary job of a pre-retiree. The Age 50 Checklist Once you’re in your 50s, it’s time to stop running on autopilot and take a closer look at your 457. Check Your “Catch-Up” Options In 2026, the standard 457 contribution limit is $24,500; however, once you’re 50, you can add an extra $8,000 in “Age 50 Catch Up” contributions. Even better, if you're within three years of your normal retirement age and haven’t maxed out your contributions in previous years, you may be able to contribute up to double the normal limit ($49,000). This is a massive boost for your savings. Diversify Your Tax Buckets Most first responders have their money in a Traditional 457, meaning you get a tax break now but pay taxes when you take the money out. Both Washington and Idaho offer Roth 457 options. With a Roth, you pay the tax today, but the money grows and comes out tax-free. For high-earners who expect their pension to keep them in a higher tax bracket during retirement, having a “tax-free” bucket of money can be helpful. Coordinate With Your Pension If your LEOFF or PERSI pension covers 70% of your needed income, your 457 can afford to be a bit more aggressive in fighting inflation. If you plan to use your 457 to bridge the gap until you collect Social Security, that money needs to be protected differently. Let’s Take a Look Together At Five Pine Wealth Management, we work with first responders in Washington and Idaho who are approaching retirement and want clarity around their financial picture. We understand how LEOFF Plan 2 and PERSI fit into the bigger picture, and how your 457 can support the retirement you’ve worked hard to build. If you’d like help understanding what you’re invested in, we’d be happy to take a look with you. You can email or call us at 877.333.1015 to schedule. We’d welcome the conversation. You’ve spent your career looking out for the community; let us help you look out for your future. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Is a Target-Date Fund enough for my 457 plan? A: For many people, it is, but as you get closer to retirement, it’s important to review whether the fund’s risk level matches your timeline and overall financial picture. Q: Is there a penalty for taking money out before age 59½? A: No. Unlike a 401(k), the 457 plan has no 10% early withdrawal penalty if you leave your employer, making it an ideal tool for first responders retiring in their early 50s. Q: Should I choose a Target-Date Fund or build my own portfolio in a 457? A: Target-date funds offer simplicity, but building your own portfolio allows for more customization. If you have a pension that already provides a stable income, building your own could be a good option.

He Had $1.1 Million and Almost Went Back to Work. Here's What Changed

April 22, 2026
Key Takeaways A portfolio designed for accumulation may carry too much risk, or the wrong kind of risk, once you stop contributing. When two spouses are at different financial life stages, their investment strategies should reflect that difference. A Roth conversion strategy during the years before required minimum distributions begin can meaningfully reduce your long-term tax burden. Rob spent 30 years building a picture-perfect financial foundation for his retirement. He maxed out his 401(k) and stayed disciplined through market downturns. By the time he retired from a long career in plant management and HR, he had a nest egg most people only dream about. But then retirement arrived, and with it came a new kind of anxiety. Rob spent all those years learning how to build wealth, but never how to draw it down. The accumulation phase was clear, but the decumulation phase is far more complex and far more personal. Rob had hired a financial advisor when he retired, hoping for guidance through that transition. Instead, he got portfolio management and investment decisions without the broader planning context he needed. That relationship didn’t last a year. And that’s when he and his wife Christie, came to Five Pine. The Numbers Behind the Plan: When They Started Today Rob’s age 57 63 Investable assets $1.1 million $2.5 million Net worth — $3.5 million Primary challenge No decumulation plan, Comprehensive plan in place heavy pre-tax exposure Key strategies Portfolio redesign, Ongoing tax planning, Roth conversion planning rebalancing When Saving Well Isn't Enough When we first met Rob and Christie, a few things stood out right away. Rob was recently retired with $1.1 million in investable assets (the vast majority of it in pre-tax retirement accounts). Christie, about ten years younger than Rob, was still working and earning a high income as a part-owner of a small business. They were a dual-financial-life household: one person winding down, one still in full accumulation mode. Rob’s most pressing concern was straightforward to state but harder to solve: how much could he spend without putting their retirement at risk? He wanted to travel, renovate the house, and buy a new vehicle without second-guessing himself. But after those decades of saving, spending felt foreign, even a little reckless. He had seriously considered going back to work, not because he needed to, but because he felt he couldn’t trust the numbers. Underneath that, a long-term tax problem was simmering. With most of their savings in pre-tax accounts, Rob and Christie were looking at significant required minimum distributions (RMDs) starting at age 73. And Christie, likely to outlive Rob by a meaningful margin, would eventually face those distributions as a single filer at higher tax rates. They weren’t in trouble, but without a plan, they were heading toward unnecessary complexity and tax liability. A Plan Built for Retirement, Not for Accumulation We started with the full financial picture. Before we touched the portfolio, we built a comprehensive financial plan and stress-tested it against different market scenarios, spending levels, and timelines. Once Rob saw the projections running out over a 30-year horizon, his hesitation about retirement began to lift. The plan gave him the number he needed and, more importantly, the confidence to trust it. From there, we redesigned the portfolio to match Rob’s phase of life. He had come from a Dave Ramsey background and had always preferred an all-equity approach: aggressive, growth-focused, and straightforward. That served him well during the accumulation years, when he contributed every month and had decades to recover from downturns. But in retirement and drawing from the portfolio regularly, it introduced more risk than his situation warranted. We restructured his holdings to roughly 60% equities, 25% fixed income, and 15% in alternative investments, specifically private credit funds and private real estate. The alternatives were a meaningful addition. They could potentially carry lower price fluctuation than publicly-traded assets and have the ability to generate distributions, which may potentially help support spending needs without forcing untimely equity sales. Christie's accounts, meanwhile, stayed aggressive. She's still contributing through her employer plan, still has years of earning ahead of her, and has time to weather market swings. Finally, we put a Roth conversion strategy in place for the years ahead. Timed to begin when Christie retires, the strategy takes advantage of a window when their income will likely be lower, but before RMDs kick in and before Christie potentially files as a single filer at higher tax rates. Converting pre-tax dollars gradually reduces the accounts that will eventually be subject to mandatory distributions, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes over time. From Hesitation to Confidence Rob came to us considering whether he needed to keep working. He left with a plan that showed him that he didn't. Once the plan was in place, Rob and Christie started making the most of their years together, international sailing trips, travel they had put off, and experiences they had earned. A health scare along the way reinforced what the plan had already made clear: the goal is to fund a life worth living while you're healthy enough to live it. On the investment side, market volatility became an opportunity rather than a threat. When markets dropped sharply during a period of economic uncertainty, we rebalanced, selling fixed income to buy equities at a discount. As markets recovered, those moves contributed meaningfully to their overall growth. Five years in, their investable assets have grown from $1.1 million to $2.5 million. Beyond that, Rob and Christie have referred five family members to Five Pine, a reflection of the trust that developed alongside their plan. In Christie's own words: "Ben and Jeremy are honest, approachable, and very professional. They take great pride in getting to know clients and listening to each individual's goals. Honestly, they are the best fiduciaries I have ever worked with, by far." Your Decumulation Strategy Starts Before You Retire Rob's story is more common than most people realize. Disciplined savers often arrive at retirement without a spending plan, a tax strategy, or a portfolio suited to this new phase of life. If you're within five to ten years of retirement (or already there), it's worth asking whether your current advisor is doing comprehensive planning, including tax planning for retirement, or simply managing your investments. Over the course of a long retirement, that distinction can determine whether or not you’re equipped to tackle retirement with confidence. We'd love to help you find your number. Email us at info@fivepinewealth.com or call 877.333.1015. Let's talk.* Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: When should I start building a decumulation strategy? A: Ideally, five to ten years before you plan to retire. That window gives you time to gradually reposition your portfolio, identify potential tax issues before they become expensive, and stress-test your spending assumptions while you still have income coming in. Q: What role does Social Security timing play in a decumulation plan? A: Claiming Social Security early locks in a permanently reduced benefit, while waiting until 70 can increase your monthly payout substantially. The right timing depends on your health, other income sources, and whether a spouse will eventually depend on your benefit as a survivor. Coordinating with your Roth conversion strategy is also worthwhile, since both affect your taxable income. Q: What happens to my decumulation plan if the market drops early in retirement? A: This is often called the sequence of returns risk. A significant market decline in the first few years of retirement can have a lasting impact on a portfolio, because you're withdrawing funds at lower values. A well-designed decumulation strategy accounts for this by maintaining a portion of the portfolio in less volatile assets, so you're not forced to sell equities at a discount to cover living expenses during a downturn. *Names have been changed to protect client privacy*