Monthly Economic Update – July 2019

Jeremy Morris • September 16, 2019

The Month in Brief

July was a positive month for stocks and a notable month for news impacting the financial markets. The S&P 500 topped the 3,000 level for the first time. The Federal Reserve cut the country’s benchmark interest rate. Consumer confidence remained strong. Trade representatives from China and the U.S. once again sat down at the negotiating table, as new data showed China’s economy lagging. In Europe, Brexit advocate Boris Johnson was elected as the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank indicated that it was open to using various options to stimulate economic activity.1

Domestic Economic Health

On July 31, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. The Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter-point reduction to the federal funds rate by a vote of 8-2. Typically, the central bank eases borrowing costs when it senses the business cycle is slowing. As the country has gone ten years without a recession, some analysts viewed this rate cut as a preventative measure. Speaking to the media, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell characterized the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment.”2

The latest hiring and consumer spending reports from the federal government suggested an economy in good shape, and the latest data on consumer prices showed no great inflation pressure. Employers had expanded their payrolls with 224,000 net new jobs in June, a rebound from the paltry 72,000 gain in May. Both the headline jobless rate and the U-6 rate (a broader measure of joblessness that includes the unemployed and underemployed) ticked up 0.1% to a respective 3.7% and 7.2%. Personal spending was up 0.3% in July, and the pace of retail sales increased 0.4%, taking the yearly gain to 3.4%. Annualized inflation was running at just 1.6% through June, down from 1.8% in May.3,4

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index reached a year-to-date peak in July: 135.7, a gain of 11.4 points from June. (The final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index had yet to be released when the month ended.)4

The pace of American manufacturing had slowed in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s latest monthly Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the sector. It declined 0.4 points to 51.7. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.1, 1.8 points lower than it was in May. On a positive note, the federal government said that hard goods orders rose 2.0% in June, and industrial production had improved 0.9% in May.1,3

In late July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the second quarter. This was the lowest gross domestic product (GDP) number seen since Q1 2017; it was also 1.0% lower than the previous quarter. The drop was primarily attributable to reduced business spending. Consumer spending increased at a 4.3% pace in Q2.5

By the end of July, China and the U.S. had resumed face-to-face negotiations on trade matters. A new trade pact did not appear to be quickly forthcoming: Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told the media in late July that he expected there would be “a few more meetings before we get a deal done.” On July 31, Chinese state media agency Xinhua reported that high-level discussions would resume in September.6,7

Global Economic Health

On July 25, the European Central Bank stated its expectation that borrowing costs would likely remain at current levels or “lower” through the second quarter of 2020. The ECB also stated that it would examine its “options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases” – in other words, it was leaving the door open to possibly restarting the monetary stimulus campaign it had ended only months before. Economists polled by Bloomberg see the ECB making a minor rate cut in September and resuming its bond-buying program in January.8

One day earlier and just 99 days prior to the European Union’s Brexit deadline, Boris Johnson assumed the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. When Parliament returns from its summer break in September, Johnson will be tasked with motivating lawmakers to approve a Brexit deal – which, in his words, will be “a new deal, a better deal” than those proposed by his predecessor, Teresa May. That said, he also told the media that a no-deal Brexit could occur if the E.U. leadership “refuses any further to negotiate.”9

China’s gross domestic product declined to 6.2% in the second quarter. That was a 27-year low. This implies some present and near-term difficulties for other Asia-Pacific economies, as China imports large quantities of electronics, palm oil, iron, copper, and petroleum products from nations within the region, and less economic activity means less demand.10

Real Estate Sales

Both new and existing home sales reversed direction in June. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.7% retreat in residential resales, following a 2.9% May advance; the median sales price was $285,700. The Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 7.0% in the sixth month of 2019, after an 8.2% setback in May.3,15

By late July, interest rates on home loans had crept up just a bit from late June. According to mortgage reseller Freddie Mac, a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan carried an average of 3.73% interest on June 27, while 15-year, fixed mortgages had an average interest rate of 3.16%. By Freddie’s July 25 Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the mean interest rate for a 30-year FRM was 0.02% higher at 3.75%; for a 15-year FRM, it was also 0.02% higher at 3.18%.16

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The Census Bureau’s latest monthly recap of residential construction activity showed June declines for both housing starts (0.9%) and building permits (6.1%).3

Disclosures

Securities and advisory services offered through Centaurus Financial, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, Registered Broker Dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Centaurus Financial Inc. and Five Pine Wealth Management are not affiliated. This is not an offer to sell securities, which may be done only after proper delivery of a prospectus and client suitability has been reviewed and determined. Information relating to securities is intended for use by individuals residing in (OR, OH, ID, CA, WA, MT, UT, NY). Centaurus Financial Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. A portion of this material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 – cbsnews.com/news/stock-market-today-record-s-p-3000-as-u-s-stocks-rise-on-interest-rate-optimism/ [7/12/19] 2 – cnbc.com/2019/07/31/fed-cuts-rates-by-a-quarter-point.html [7/31/19] 3 – investing.com/economic-calendar [7/31/19] 4 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/moderate-u-s-consumer-spending-inflation-back-fed-rate-cut-idUSKCN1UP1FD [7/30/19] 5 – cnbc.com/2019/07/26/us-gdp-second-quarter-2019.html [7/26/19] 6 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/top-us-china-trade-negotiators-to-meet-in-shanghai-next-week-idUSKCN1UJ1JI [7/24/19] 7 – cnbc.com/2019/07/31/trade-talks-to-continue-in-september-in-the-us-chinese-state-media-says.html [7/31/19] 8 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-25/ecb-signals-rate-cut-qe-ahead-as-global-stimulus-push-picks-up [7/25/19] 9 – apnews.com/18957b2a83e14a31865610cf1ee20579 [7/24/19] 10 – dw.com/en/asias-triple-whammy-china-slowdown-trade-war-and-chips/a-49748052 [7/25/19] 11 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [7/31/19] 12 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [7/31/19] 13 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [7/31/19] 14 – barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [7/31/19] 15 – nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales [7/24/19] 16 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [7/26/19] 17 – investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data [7/31/19] 18 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18] 19 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [7/31/19]

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When Saving Money Starts Getting in the Way of Living

May 21, 2026
Key Takeaways Saving money is important, but constantly postponing meaningful experiences can leave you financially secure and personally unfulfilled. Fear, habit, and identity often play a bigger role in spending decisions than numbers do. A healthy financial plan should support both your future security and your ability to enjoy life along the way. Imagine you’ve saved diligently for decades. You have a healthy income, growing retirement accounts, manageable debt, and investment balances that continue climbing year after year. Yet, somewhere in the back of your mind, a voice keeps saying, “Not enough.” So you hold off on the vacation or skip the kitchen renovation. You tell yourself you will spend more freely later, once things feel more certain. You keep asking yourself the same question, “Can we really afford this?” Sometimes the answer is yes by every objective financial measure, but emotionally, it still feels uncomfortable. For years, personal finance advice has focused heavily on the dangers of overspending. Save more. Spend less. Delay gratification. Avoid lifestyle creep. That advice absolutely matters. Many people would benefit from stronger saving habits. But there is another side of the equation that does not get discussed enough. Some people become so good at saving that they forget what the money was for in the first place. Am I Saving Too Much?  This question sounds almost absurd, and many people feel uncomfortable asking it. In our culture, saving is viewed as responsible and disciplined. Spending often gets framed as careless or indulgent. So when someone continues accumulating wealth year after year, nobody really raises concerns. But over-saving can create its own problems. We have worked with people who consistently save large percentages of their income while postponing almost everything meaningful to them. They delay vacations. Put hobbies on hold. Continue working in stressful jobs long after they financially need to. They keep waiting for some future point where they will finally feel safe enough to enjoy what they built. The challenge is that “enough” can become a moving target. As portfolios grow, lifestyles usually grow too. Concerns about inflation, healthcare costs, market volatility, taxes, and longevity all start competing for attention. Even financially successful people can develop a persistent fear that one wrong decision could jeopardize everything. That fear is often emotional rather than mathematical. In many cases, the numbers support far more flexibility than the person believes. The Psychology of Saving Money Saving behavior is deeply tied to emotion, identity, and the stories we tell ourselves about security. Understanding why you save the way you do is the first step toward making more intentional choices. Fear of running out is one of the most powerful drivers. Even people with substantial assets can feel that their wealth is fragile, particularly if they grew up without financial stability or lived through a major market downturn. The brain tends to overweigh dramatic losses compared to equivalent gains, which means the emotional pain of imagining a depleted account is often disproportionate to the actual probability of it happening. Habit reinforcement plays a significant role as well. If you spent 30 years in accumulation mode, consistently saving and reinvesting and growing, your financial behaviors became deeply ingrained. Transitioning from saving to spending, even intentionally, and when the numbers support it, can feel wrong at a gut level. The habits that built your wealth can work against you when the time comes to use it. Societal pressure adds another layer. High-earning professionals are often surrounded by messages that equate financial discipline with virtue. Spending on yourself can feel indulgent or even irresponsible, even when it’s neither. There is a difference between careless spending and deliberate investment in your own well-being, but the cultural script often blurs that line. For business owners and dual-income households, there is also the identity piece. When so much of your sense of self is tied to building, growing, and accumulating, shifting toward enjoyment requires a genuine psychological reorientation, not just a new budget line. Values-Based Spending Over-saving isn't fixed by spending more randomly. What actually helps is spending with intention — putting money toward things that genuinely matter to you. This is what we mean by values-based spending : aligning how money flows with what you care about. The exercise starts with a conversation about what you want your life to look like. Not the life you think you should want, and not the life your parents had or your colleagues' project, but the experiences, relationships, contributions, and comforts that would make your days feel meaningful and full. From there, a good financial plan becomes a permission structure. When your advisor can show you, concretely, that your goals are funded and your risks are managed, spending stops feeling like a threat to your security. It starts feeling like money doing what money is supposed to do. Values-based spending also helps you stop spending on things that don’t matter to you. Many high earners discover that their default expenditures have drifted away from their priorities over time. Redirecting those dollars toward what genuinely matters often feels better than a raw increase in spending. Signs You May Be Under-Living Financially A few patterns tend to show up repeatedly among chronic oversavers: You feel guilty spending money even after careful planning. Your savings goals continue increasing without a clear reason. You postpone experiences you deeply want because you “might” need the money someday. You struggle to define what financial freedom would look like for you. Your net worth keeps growing, but your day-to-day life feels largely unchanged. You continue working at a pace that negatively impacts your health or relationships, despite already being financially secure. None of these automatically means you are saving too much. But they are often signals worth examining more closely. Practical Steps to Align Your Money With Your Life Making the shift from over-saving to purposeful living does not require a dramatic overhaul. It starts with a few honest conversations and a willingness to examine some long-held assumptions. Start by revisiting your retirement projections with a financial advisor. Ask specifically what your models say about your ability to spend, not just your ability to accumulate. Many clients are surprised to find that their plan supports significantly more lifestyle spending than they had assumed. Build a "permission budget" for discretionary spending. This is not a ceiling on enjoyment but a deliberate allocation toward experiences and priorities you have identified as meaningful. Giving yourself explicit permission to spend in certain areas, backed by a sound financial plan, reduces the guilt that often accompanies even well-deserved expenditures. Consider what you are waiting for. If the answer is a number that keeps moving, or a level of certainty that financial markets will never provide, it’s worth exploring whether the hesitation is financial or psychological. A good advisor can help you separate the two. A Healthy Financial Plan Should Support Your Life A strong financial plan should create confidence, not permanent deprivation. Saving diligently is important, but there is also value in recognizing when enough may already be enough. The goal is for your spending to reflect your values, your priorities, and where you are in life right now. Because eventually, there has to be a point where the money begins serving you instead of the other way around. If you’ve been wondering whether your saving habits still align with the life you want to live, we’d love to help you think through it. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we help clients build financial plans that support both long-term security and meaningful living today. Call us at 877.333.1015 or email us at info@fivepinewealth.com to start the conversation. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Why do I feel anxious spending money even when I can afford it? A: Spending anxiety is often tied to the psychology of saving money. Past financial stress, market downturns, family experiences, and years of disciplined saving can condition people to associate spending with risk, even when their financial plan supports it. Q: Can over-saving negatively affect your quality of life? A: Yes. Constantly delaying travel, hobbies, family experiences, or personal goals in pursuit of “more” can lead to burnout, stress, and missed opportunities. Financial security matters, but so does enjoying the life your money was meant to support.

What's Inside Your 457? (And Why It Matters More Than You Think)

April 30, 2026
Key Takeaways Your 457 should work alongside your pension to support your overall retirement income plan. Many 457 plans are set on autopilot, but your investments shouldn’t stay that way as you near retirement. Understanding what you're invested in helps you make better decisions when markets move. Turning 50 is your signal to review your 457 more closely so you can check your contributions, risk level, and how it fits with your pension before retirement gets too close. Like many first responders in Washington and Idaho, you probably have a pretty solid grasp of your "Plan A." Between the WA LEOFF Plan 2 or ID PERSI, you’ve spent your career earning a guaranteed monthly pension. It’s the foundation of your retirement — the steady paycheck that arrives regardless of what the stock market does. But then there’s that "other" account. The one you’ve been tucking money into every pay period through deferred compensation. In Washington, it’s usually the Washington State Deferred Compensation Program (WSDCP); in Idaho, it’s often the State of Idaho 457(b) Plan. When we sit down with firefighters and police officers who are within 10 years of their "end of watch" date, they usually know two things about this account: how much is in it and that they’re glad they started it. But when we ask, 'What is that money actually doing?' — that question usually gets a pause. If you’re 50 or older, it’s time to move past the "set it and forget it" mentality. Let’s take a look at how your 457 works and how to make sure it’s working for you. 457 Plan Investment Options  Unlike your pension, which is managed by the state, your 457 is a “defined contribution” plan. That means the outcome depends entirely on how much you put in and how those funds are invested. A 457 plan is just a container. Think of it like a toolbox. What matters is what’s inside the box. Your account isn’t sitting in cash (at least it shouldn’t be). It’s invested in a mix of underlying funds, usually including: Stock funds (equities): These are your growth engines. They tend to go up over time, but they can be volatile. These could be U.S. stock funds or international funds. Bond funds (fixed income): These provide stability and income, but with historically reduced long-term returns. Stable value or cash equivalents: Lower risk, but also lower growth. Most public service 457 plans in the Northwest offer a menu of these options. Some people choose to build their own mix, while others choose a single “all-in-one” fund and let it do the work. This brings us to the most common choice we see… What is a Target-Date Fund? A Target-Date Fund (TDF) is designed to be a one-stop shop. The “date” in the name is the year the fund assumes you will retire. If you plan to hang up the uniform in 2030, you’d likely be in a 2030 fund. A TDF automatically shifts its risk level as you get closer to that date. This is called the glide path . When you are 20 years away from retirement, the fund is aggressive. It buys mostly stocks because you have time to recover from market crashes. As you get closer to the target year, the fund manager automatically “glides” the investments away from risky stocks and into “safer” bonds and cash. TDFs are built for the “average” American worker who relies solely on Social Security and a 401(k), but you aren’t the average worker. You have a LEOFF or PERSI pension. Because your pension acts like a “super bond” (stable, guaranteed income), being too conservative in your 457 might hinder your growth. Conversely, if you’re planning to retire at 53 (common for LEOFF 2) but your fund is target age 65, you might be taking way more risk than you realize. It’s also important to note that two funds with the same year, for example, 2035, can have very different levels of risk depending on the provider. One may still hold 60% in stocks near retirement, while another might be closer to 40%. How Risk Changes as Retirement Approaches In your 20s, 30s, and even early 40s, “risk” is your friend. Risk is what grows a $50,000 account into a $500,000 account. However, as you approach the age of 50, the definition of risk changes. That’s because you’re entering what we call the “retirement red zone,” roughly five years before and five years after your retirement date. This is when: Your portfolio is at its largest You have less time to recover from downturns You may soon rely on the money for income We look at two specific types of risk for our clients: Sequence of Returns Risk: The risk that a market crash occurs just as you start taking withdrawals. If the market drops 20% the year you retire, and you start pulling money out to travel or pay off the mortgage, your account may never recover. Inflation Risk: If you get scared and move everything into the “Fixed Account” or “Stable Value Fund,” you might not lose money, but you’ll lose purchasing power. If your account earns 2% but the cost of living goes up by 4%, you’re technically getting poorer every year. Finding the “Goldilocks” zone — not too hot, not too cold — is the primary job of a pre-retiree. The Age 50 Checklist Once you’re in your 50s, it’s time to stop running on autopilot and take a closer look at your 457. Check Your “Catch-Up” Options In 2026, the standard 457 contribution limit is $24,500; however, once you’re 50, you can add an extra $8,000 in “Age 50 Catch Up” contributions. Even better, if you're within three years of your normal retirement age and haven’t maxed out your contributions in previous years, you may be able to contribute up to double the normal limit ($49,000). This is a massive boost for your savings. Diversify Your Tax Buckets Most first responders have their money in a Traditional 457, meaning you get a tax break now but pay taxes when you take the money out. Both Washington and Idaho offer Roth 457 options. With a Roth, you pay the tax today, but the money grows and comes out tax-free. For high-earners who expect their pension to keep them in a higher tax bracket during retirement, having a “tax-free” bucket of money can be helpful. Coordinate With Your Pension If your LEOFF or PERSI pension covers 70% of your needed income, your 457 can afford to be a bit more aggressive in fighting inflation. If you plan to use your 457 to bridge the gap until you collect Social Security, that money needs to be protected differently. Let’s Take a Look Together At Five Pine Wealth Management, we work with first responders in Washington and Idaho who are approaching retirement and want clarity around their financial picture. We understand how LEOFF Plan 2 and PERSI fit into the bigger picture, and how your 457 can support the retirement you’ve worked hard to build. If you’d like help understanding what you’re invested in, we’d be happy to take a look with you. You can email or call us at 877.333.1015 to schedule. We’d welcome the conversation. You’ve spent your career looking out for the community; let us help you look out for your future. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Is a Target-Date Fund enough for my 457 plan? A: For many people, it is, but as you get closer to retirement, it’s important to review whether the fund’s risk level matches your timeline and overall financial picture. Q: Is there a penalty for taking money out before age 59½? A: No. Unlike a 401(k), the 457 plan has no 10% early withdrawal penalty if you leave your employer, making it an ideal tool for first responders retiring in their early 50s. Q: Should I choose a Target-Date Fund or build my own portfolio in a 457? A: Target-date funds offer simplicity, but building your own portfolio allows for more customization. If you have a pension that already provides a stable income, building your own could be a good option.