Monthly Economic Update – July 2019

Jeremy Morris • September 16, 2019

The Month in Brief

July was a positive month for stocks and a notable month for news impacting the financial markets. The S&P 500 topped the 3,000 level for the first time. The Federal Reserve cut the country’s benchmark interest rate. Consumer confidence remained strong. Trade representatives from China and the U.S. once again sat down at the negotiating table, as new data showed China’s economy lagging. In Europe, Brexit advocate Boris Johnson was elected as the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and the European Central Bank indicated that it was open to using various options to stimulate economic activity.1

Domestic Economic Health

On July 31, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. The Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter-point reduction to the federal funds rate by a vote of 8-2. Typically, the central bank eases borrowing costs when it senses the business cycle is slowing. As the country has gone ten years without a recession, some analysts viewed this rate cut as a preventative measure. Speaking to the media, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell characterized the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment.”2

The latest hiring and consumer spending reports from the federal government suggested an economy in good shape, and the latest data on consumer prices showed no great inflation pressure. Employers had expanded their payrolls with 224,000 net new jobs in June, a rebound from the paltry 72,000 gain in May. Both the headline jobless rate and the U-6 rate (a broader measure of joblessness that includes the unemployed and underemployed) ticked up 0.1% to a respective 3.7% and 7.2%. Personal spending was up 0.3% in July, and the pace of retail sales increased 0.4%, taking the yearly gain to 3.4%. Annualized inflation was running at just 1.6% through June, down from 1.8% in May.3,4

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index reached a year-to-date peak in July: 135.7, a gain of 11.4 points from June. (The final July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index had yet to be released when the month ended.)4

The pace of American manufacturing had slowed in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s latest monthly Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the sector. It declined 0.4 points to 51.7. ISM’s Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.1, 1.8 points lower than it was in May. On a positive note, the federal government said that hard goods orders rose 2.0% in June, and industrial production had improved 0.9% in May.1,3

In late July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the second quarter. This was the lowest gross domestic product (GDP) number seen since Q1 2017; it was also 1.0% lower than the previous quarter. The drop was primarily attributable to reduced business spending. Consumer spending increased at a 4.3% pace in Q2.5

By the end of July, China and the U.S. had resumed face-to-face negotiations on trade matters. A new trade pact did not appear to be quickly forthcoming: Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told the media in late July that he expected there would be “a few more meetings before we get a deal done.” On July 31, Chinese state media agency Xinhua reported that high-level discussions would resume in September.6,7

Global Economic Health

On July 25, the European Central Bank stated its expectation that borrowing costs would likely remain at current levels or “lower” through the second quarter of 2020. The ECB also stated that it would examine its “options for the size and composition of potential new net asset purchases” – in other words, it was leaving the door open to possibly restarting the monetary stimulus campaign it had ended only months before. Economists polled by Bloomberg see the ECB making a minor rate cut in September and resuming its bond-buying program in January.8

One day earlier and just 99 days prior to the European Union’s Brexit deadline, Boris Johnson assumed the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. When Parliament returns from its summer break in September, Johnson will be tasked with motivating lawmakers to approve a Brexit deal – which, in his words, will be “a new deal, a better deal” than those proposed by his predecessor, Teresa May. That said, he also told the media that a no-deal Brexit could occur if the E.U. leadership “refuses any further to negotiate.”9

China’s gross domestic product declined to 6.2% in the second quarter. That was a 27-year low. This implies some present and near-term difficulties for other Asia-Pacific economies, as China imports large quantities of electronics, palm oil, iron, copper, and petroleum products from nations within the region, and less economic activity means less demand.10

Real Estate Sales

Both new and existing home sales reversed direction in June. The National Association of Realtors announced a 1.7% retreat in residential resales, following a 2.9% May advance; the median sales price was $285,700. The Census Bureau said that new home sales rose 7.0% in the sixth month of 2019, after an 8.2% setback in May.3,15

By late July, interest rates on home loans had crept up just a bit from late June. According to mortgage reseller Freddie Mac, a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan carried an average of 3.73% interest on June 27, while 15-year, fixed mortgages had an average interest rate of 3.16%. By Freddie’s July 25 Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the mean interest rate for a 30-year FRM was 0.02% higher at 3.75%; for a 15-year FRM, it was also 0.02% higher at 3.18%.16

30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages are conventional home loans generally featuring a limit of $484,350 ($726,525 in high-cost areas) that meet the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they are not mortgages guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.

The Census Bureau’s latest monthly recap of residential construction activity showed June declines for both housing starts (0.9%) and building permits (6.1%).3

Disclosures

Securities and advisory services offered through Centaurus Financial, Inc. Member FINRA & SIPC, Registered Broker Dealer and a Registered Investment Advisor. Centaurus Financial Inc. and Five Pine Wealth Management are not affiliated. This is not an offer to sell securities, which may be done only after proper delivery of a prospectus and client suitability has been reviewed and determined. Information relating to securities is intended for use by individuals residing in (OR, OH, ID, CA, WA, MT, UT, NY). Centaurus Financial Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. A portion of this material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. The Bovespa Index is a gross total return index weighted by traded volume & is comprised of the most liquid stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Hang Seng Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Nifty 50 (NTFE 50) is a well-diversified 50-stock index accounting for 13 sectors of the Indian economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index-based derivatives and index funds. The BSE SENSEX (Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index), also-called the BSE 30 (BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE) or simply the SENSEX, is a free-float market capitalization-weighted stock market index of 30 well-established and financially sound companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 – cbsnews.com/news/stock-market-today-record-s-p-3000-as-u-s-stocks-rise-on-interest-rate-optimism/ [7/12/19] 2 – cnbc.com/2019/07/31/fed-cuts-rates-by-a-quarter-point.html [7/31/19] 3 – investing.com/economic-calendar [7/31/19] 4 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/moderate-u-s-consumer-spending-inflation-back-fed-rate-cut-idUSKCN1UP1FD [7/30/19] 5 – cnbc.com/2019/07/26/us-gdp-second-quarter-2019.html [7/26/19] 6 – reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/top-us-china-trade-negotiators-to-meet-in-shanghai-next-week-idUSKCN1UJ1JI [7/24/19] 7 – cnbc.com/2019/07/31/trade-talks-to-continue-in-september-in-the-us-chinese-state-media-says.html [7/31/19] 8 – bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-25/ecb-signals-rate-cut-qe-ahead-as-global-stimulus-push-picks-up [7/25/19] 9 – apnews.com/18957b2a83e14a31865610cf1ee20579 [7/24/19] 10 – dw.com/en/asias-triple-whammy-china-slowdown-trade-war-and-chips/a-49748052 [7/25/19] 11 – markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [7/31/19] 12 – msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [7/31/19] 13 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [7/31/19] 14 – barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [7/31/19] 15 – nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales [7/24/19] 16 – freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [7/26/19] 17 – investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data [7/31/19] 18 – markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18] 19 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [7/31/19]

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401(k) Millionaire: Proven Strategies to Reach 7 Figures in Your Retirement Account

October 17, 2025
Key Takeaways Maxing out your employer match provides an immediate 50-100% return and is the easiest way to accelerate your 401(k) growth. Reaching $1 million in your 401(k) depends more on consistent contributions over time than on being the highest earner or picking winning investments. High earners can potentially contribute up to $70,000 annually through a mega backdoor Roth conversion if their employer plan allows after-tax contributions. Hitting seven figures in your 401(k) might sound like a pipe dream, but it's more achievable than you think. With the right 401(k) investment strategies and a disciplined approach, becoming a 401(k) millionaire is within reach for many mid-career professionals. Let's walk through exactly how you can get there. The Math Behind Becoming a 401(k) Millionaire Before we discuss strategies, let's look at the numbers. Understanding the math helps you see that reaching $1 million isn't about getting lucky — it's about time, consistency, and thoughtful planning. Starting Age Annual Contribution Balance at 65* 30 $15,000 $1.5 million 30 $20,000 $2 million 40 $25,000 $1.3 million *Assumes 7% average annual return Time matters, but it's never too late to build substantial wealth if you're willing to prioritize your retirement savings. 7 Steps to Build Your 401(k) to Seven Figures Now that you understand the math, let's break down the specific strategies that will get you there. Step 1: Max Out Your Employer Match (The Easiest Money You'll Ever Make) If your employer offers a 401(k) match, contributing enough to capture it fully is the absolute first step: it’s free money that provides an immediate 50-100% return on your investment. Let's say your employer matches 50% of your contributions up to 6% of your salary. If you earn $150,000 and contribute $9,000 (6% of your salary), your employer adds $4,500. That's a guaranteed 50% return before your money even hits the market. Not taking full advantage of an employer match is like turning down a raise. Make sure you're contributing at least enough to capture every dollar your employer offers. Step 2: Gradually Increase Your Contribution Rate Once you've secured your employer match, the next step is increasing your personal contribution rate over time. For 2025, the 401(k) contribution limit is $23,500 (or $31,000 if you're 50 or older with catch-up contributions). Here's a practical approach: Every time you get a raise or bonus, direct at least half toward your 401(k). If you get a 4% raise, bump your contribution by 2%. Many plans now offer automatic annual increases. If yours does, set it to increase your contribution by 1-2% annually until you hit the maximum. You'll barely notice the change, but your future self will thank you. Step 3: Master Tax-Advantaged Retirement Accounts Through Strategic Contributions Traditional 401(k) contributions reduce your taxable income now, which is ideal if you're in a high tax bracket today. Roth 401(k) contributions don't reduce current taxes, but withdrawals in retirement are tax-free — valuable if you're earlier in your career or expect a higher income later. A hybrid approach works for many of our clients. Step 4: Optimize Your 401(k) Investment Strategies Your contribution rate matters, but so does what you're investing in. We regularly see clients who contribute aggressively but choose overly conservative investments that don't provide enough growth. Keep costs low . Target-date funds and index funds typically offer the lowest expense ratios. Every 0.5% in fees you avoid can add tens of thousands to your retirement balance over 30 years. Rebalance annually . Market movements throw your allocation off balance. Set a reminder once a year to review and rebalance your portfolio back to your target allocation. Avoid the temptation to chase performance . Last year's top-performing fund is rarely this year's winner. Stick with broadly diversified, low-cost options. Step 5: Consider a Mega Backdoor Roth Conversion If you're a high earner who's already maxing out regular 401(k) contributions, a mega backdoor Roth conversion can accelerate your retirement savings. Here's how it works: Some employer plans allow after-tax contributions beyond the standard $23,500 limit. The total contribution limit for 2025 (including employer contributions and after-tax contributions) is $70,000 ($77,500 if you're 50+). If your plan permits, you can make after-tax contributions up to that limit, then immediately convert those contributions to a Roth 401(k) or roll them into a Roth IRA. This gives you tax-free growth on substantially more money than the regular contribution limits allow. Not all plans offer this option, and the rules can be complex. Check with your HR department to see if your plan allows after-tax contributions and in-plan Roth conversions or rollovers. Step 6: Avoid These Common 401(k) Mistakes Even with great 401(k) investment strategies, mistakes can derail your progress toward seven figures. Avoid: Taking loans from your 401(k) . While it might seem convenient, you're robbing yourself of compound growth. The money you borrow stops working for you, and you're paying yourself back with after-tax dollars. Cashing out when changing jobs . Rolling over your 401(k) to your new employer's plan or an IRA allows your money to continue growing tax-deferred. Cashing out triggers taxes and penalties that can set you back years. Panic selling during market downturns . Market volatility is normal. The clients who reach $1 million are those who stay invested through ups and downs, not those who try to time the market. Step 7: Stay Consistent (Even When It's Boring) The path to becoming a 401(k) millionaire isn't exciting (and that’s a good thing!). The most successful savers aren't those who constantly tweak their strategy or chase the latest investment trend. They're the ones who set up automatic contributions, review their allocation once a year, and otherwise leave their 401(k) alone. Let Five Pine Help You Build Your Million-Dollar Plan Reaching $1 million in your 401(k) is absolutely achievable with the right strategy and discipline. Whether you're just starting your career or playing catch-up in your 40s and 50s, the steps remain the same: maximize contributions, optimize your investments, take advantage of tax-advantaged retirement accounts, and stay consistent. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we help clients build comprehensive retirement strategies that go beyond just their 401(k). We can analyze your current contributions, recommend optimal allocation strategies, and help you coordinate your employer plan with other retirement accounts. Want to see what your path to seven figures looks like? We help clients build these roadmaps every day. Email us at info@fivepinewealth.com or give us a call at 877.333.1015. Let's talk about your specific situation. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Should I prioritize maxing out my 401(k) or paying off debt first? A: Start by contributing enough to capture your full employer match — that's an immediate 50-100% return you can't get anywhere else. Beyond that, prioritize high-interest debt (credit cards, personal loans) since those interest rates typically exceed investment returns. Q: Should I stop contributing during market downturns to avoid losses? A: No — continuing to contribute during downturns is actually one of the best strategies for building wealth. When prices are lower, your contributions buy more shares, setting you up for greater gains when the market recovers. Q: I'm 55 with only $300K saved. Is it too late to reach $1 million?  A : While reaching exactly $1 million by 65 might be challenging, you can still build substantial wealth. Maxing out contributions, including catch-up ($31,000/year), could get you to $750K-$850K depending on returns. Disclaimer: This is not tax or investment advice. Individuals should consult with a qualified professional for recommendations appropriate to their specific situation.

Couples Money Management: Why Both Spouses Need to Know Where the Money Is

October 17, 2025
Key Takeaways Both spouses should understand the family’s finances, even if only one manages them, to prevent confusion or stress during life’s unexpected events. Regular money check-ins, shared account access, and attending financial planning meetings together help couples build confidence and clarity. Partnering with a fiduciary advisor ensures both spouses have support, education, and guidance for comprehensive wealth management and long-term peace of mind. Money is one of the most common sources of stress in relationships. Some couples argue about spending habits, while others quietly hand off all financial responsibilities to one spouse and never revisit the arrangement. At first glance, this setup can feel efficient: one partner pays the bills, manages investments, and handles taxes while the other takes care of different responsibilities. However, there is a risk to this method. If something unexpected happens, the spouse who hasn’t been involved in financial decisions can feel completely lost. Even highly capable, intelligent people often tell us they don’t know where accounts are located, how much income is coming in, or what investments they own. When life throws a curveball, like illness, death, or divorce, that lack of knowledge creates unnecessary anxiety during an already difficult time. The solution is not to necessarily make both partners money managers, but to ensure both understand the big picture. Let’s walk through why this matters, what it looks like in practice, and how you can start today. Financial Planning for Couples Effective financial planning for couples goes beyond having the right investment mix or adequate insurance coverage. It requires both spouses to understand the big picture of their financial life, even if only one manages the day-to-day details. This doesn't mean both partners need to become financial experts. Instead, it means creating transparency and basic literacy that protects your family's financial security regardless of what life throws at you. Here are a few essentials: Regular check-ins : Schedule monthly or quarterly “money talks” where you review accounts, upcoming expenses, and investment performance. This keeps both partners informed. Shared access : Make sure both spouses have login information for bank, investment, and retirement accounts. A secure password manager can help keep things organized. Big-picture clarity : Even if one spouse handles the details, both should know where you stand with assets, liabilities, income, and goals. Think of it as insurance against uncertainty. If one spouse suddenly has to take the reins, they aren’t starting from zero. Couples Money Management Couples' money management doesn’t have to mean “50/50 responsibility for every financial task.” Instead, think about it as defining roles while keeping communication open. Many households operate on a “primary manager” system. One person writes the checks, monitors the accounts, and interacts with financial advisors. That’s perfectly fine, as long as the other spouse has visibility. Problems arise when the "non-manager" is completely shut out. Some practical ways to stay connected: Attend meetings together : Whether it’s with your accountant, attorney, or financial planner, both spouses should be present. Hearing the same information firsthand helps prevent misunderstandings. Document everything : Create a simple household financial binder (digital or physical) that includes account numbers, insurance policies, estate documents, and contact info for professionals you work with. Ask questions : No question is too small. If you don’t understand how an investment works or why you own it, speak up. Practice decision-making together: Involve both partners in financial decisions, even small ones. This builds confidence and familiarity with your financial priorities and decision-making process. Fiduciary Financial Planning: The Professional Partnership Advantage Working with a fiduciary financial advisor creates an additional layer of protection for couples navigating financial planning together. Fiduciary advisors are legally required to act in your best interest, providing objective guidance that supports both partners' financial security. A good fiduciary advisor will insist on meeting with both spouses regularly, ensuring that financial strategies are understood and agreed upon by both partners. They can also provide education and support to help less financially-inclined spouses build confidence and understanding over time. This professional relationship becomes especially valuable during transitions. When one spouse dies or becomes incapacitated, having an advisor who knows both partners and understands the family's complete financial picture provides stability during chaos. Comprehensive Wealth Management Comprehensive wealth management goes beyond investments. It covers cash flow, taxes, estate planning, insurance, and long-term care strategies. For couples, it also means creating contingency plans. What happens if one spouse passes away? Will the survivor know how to access accounts? What if the “financial spouse” faces cognitive decline later in life? Will the other partner have the confidence to step in? These are not fun scenarios to imagine, but planning for them is an act of love. Comprehensive wealth management ensures: Estate documents are in place and up to date (wills, powers of attorney, trusts). Beneficiaries are correct on retirement accounts, insurance, and other assets. Tax planning strategies are understood by both spouses, so surprises don’t derail long-term goals. Cash flow is sustainable even if income sources shift (such as after retirement or the loss of a business owner’s salary). When couples approach wealth management together, they reduce the risk of financial upheaval during life’s transitions. When Life Changes Everything: Rebuilding Financial Confidence After Loss Despite the best preparation, losing a spouse creates emotional and financial challenges that feel overwhelming. If you find yourself suddenly managing finances alone, remember that feeling lost is normal and temporary. Start by taking inventory of your immediate needs. Focus on essential expenses and cash flow first. Most other financial decisions can wait while you process your grief and adjust to your new reality. Don't make significant financial changes immediately. Grief affects judgment, and rushed decisions often create problems later. Give yourself time to understand your new situation before making significant moves. Lean on your professional team. This is exactly when having existing relationships with financial advisors, attorneys, and accountants becomes invaluable. They can provide stability and guidance during an unstable time. Consider working with a counselor who specializes in financial therapy or grief counseling. Processing the emotional aspects of sudden financial responsibility is just as important as understanding the technical details. Taking the Next Step Together If you and your spouse have fallen into the habit of letting one person manage all the finances, it’s not too late to shift. Schedule a money talk this week. Write down your accounts. Ask questions. Set a reminder to attend your next financial planning meeting together. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we can guide couples through these conversations. Whether you’re in the wealth accumulation phase, approaching retirement, or already enjoying it, we help both partners feel equally confident in their financial picture. Don't wait until a crisis forces financial literacy upon you. Call (877.333.1015) or send us an email today at info@fivepinewealth.com to schedule a consultation and start building the financial transparency and security your family deserves. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: What if one spouse has no interest in learning about finances? A: Start small and focus on the essentials. Your spouse doesn't need to become a financial expert, but they should know where important documents are located, understand your basic monthly expenses, and know how to contact your financial advisor. Q: How often should we review our finances together if only one person manages them day-to-day? A: Quarterly check-ins work well for most couples. Schedule a regular 30-minute conversation to review your progress toward goals, discuss any major upcoming expenses, and ensure both partners stay informed about your overall financial picture. Q: What's the most important thing for the non-financial spouse to understand first?  A: Cash flow and immediate needs. Know where your checking accounts are, how much you typically spend each month, what bills are on autopay, and how to access emergency funds. This knowledge provides immediate stability if they suddenly need to take over financial management.