Stocked for Success? Finding an Appropriate Rate of Return for Your Retirement Plan

Admin • December 15, 2023

Planning for retirement can be quite daunting given the multitude of questions to tackle and gaps to fill. When faced with numerous unknowns, where do you even start?

Rest assured that you’re not alone if you’ve ever felt a bit stuck in planning for your future. After all, the game changes entirely if you envision retiring in a place with a reputation for sky-high living costs like California, compared to a more wallet-friendly option like Thailand. Plus, who can predict the curveballs life might throw your way between now and retirement?

But even with all the unknowns, you should still visualize what you want your retirement to look like and set goals to achieve, even if those goals need some fine-tuning along the way.

One such goal is figuring out the rate of return to aim for when investing for retirement. It’s a goal that might need some tweaking as your circumstances change, but it’s an essential variable in connecting the dots. Why? Because it helps you figure out another missing piece of the puzzle — how much you need to save for retirement. 

What Rate of Return Should I Use for Retirement Planning?

If you’re curious about what rate of return you should use for retirement planning, stay tuned. We’re about to break it down into a few key factors:

  1. Your time horizon
  2. Your risk tolerance
  3. Your asset allocation

If you’re all in for securing your future, let’s jump right in!

1. Your Time Horizon

Your time horizon is the stretch between now and when you need to tap into your retirement nest egg, and it significantly shapes your investment strategy and the rate of return you aim for.

If you have a longer time horizon, it gives you the flexibility to have a more diversified portfolio that includes a mix of assets with varying levels of risk and potential return because you have the leeway to ride out the ups and downs of the market.

Conversely, if you have a shorter time horizon, your focus might pivot from chasing growth to protecting the nest egg you’ve worked hard to build. Adopting a more preservation-oriented strategy could mean streamlining your investment choices to more conservative options, like bonds, which generally offer lower returns.

Historically, the average annual rate of return for the overall stock market, measured by indices like the S&P 500, has been around 10% per year . That might sound like an appealing annual rate of return on retirement investments, but the reality is that there are years when the market falls short of expectations and others when it will exceed them. 

What does that mean for you? It means you need to align your investments with the timeline leading up to your retirement. 

Imagine you’re two years away from retirement. Opting for a higher-risk portfolio in pursuit of a stellar 10% annual return might not be the most strategic move because those two years may turn out to be turbulent in the markets. You’d risk a loss you might not fully recover from.

The consensus is that the longer your time horizon, the more risk you can afford to take and the higher the rate of return you can target, given the time you have to recover from any setbacks. But it’s not just about the time you’ve got — it’s also about the volatility you can stomach, which we’ll cover next!

2. Your Risk Tolerance

Every investor dreams of reaping all the rewards, but not everyone can shoulder all the risks needed to achieve those rewards. 

Enter risk tolerance, a key factor in deciding the appropriate rate of return for your portfolio. We’ve touched on how your time horizon influences your risk tolerance, but let’s not forget the more personal and emotional aspects — considerations like your financial needs and goals and your comfort level when investing.

Your Financial Needs and Goals

The magnitude of your goals has a direct impact on your risk tolerance. For some, the objective might be as straightforward as securing a comfortable retirement without outliving their nest egg.

Meanwhile, some aspire to more profound objectives, such as aiming for a secure retirement while concurrently creating a lasting legacy for future generations. Such ambitious objectives might call for higher returns and a willingness to take some risks over the investment horizon.

Your Comfort Level

No matter your age, current circumstances, or goals, the bottom line is this: some investors can handle the natural highs and lows of the markets, while others find it highly nerve-wracking.

If there’s a disconnect between your risk tolerance and the actual risk in your portfolio, it can result in emotional stress and less-than-ideal investment decisions—such as deciding to cash out your entire portfolio when things start getting a bit shaky.

If you prefer a more conservative approach due to a low-risk tolerance, it might require you to boost your savings to reach your financial goals. 

You probably have a broad sense of your risk tolerance from what we’ve covered here, but if you want to take it a step further, find out if any of your financial institutions offer a risk tolerance questionnaire. Alternatively, you can consult with an advisor who can provide more personalized insights into your specific circumstances.

3. Your Asset Allocation

Let’s backtrack for a moment to the fact that the average annual return for the overall stock market, as measured by indices like the S&P 500, has historically hovered around 10% per year. 

The S&P 500 is a market index that tracks the performance of the 500 largest (and some of the most successful) public companies in the U.S. (think: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, Microsoft, to name a few).

With that in mind, it’s not practical to stash all your eggs in bonds and cash and anticipate a similar outcome to the historical performance of the overall market. Similarly, going all-in on one of the riskier asset classes — equities — doesn’t quite align with the goal of low-risk investments with minimal downside.

How you divide your portfolio across various assets matters in determining a realistic rate of return. 

To get a snapshot of your current portfolio, you should be able to log into your account(s) or review statements to find a breakdown of your investments and their historical performance and returns. Understanding your current allocation and its historical performance is a helpful way to gauge a realistic rate of return for the future (and helps you assess if any changes are in order!).

Just like your time horizon and risk tolerance, your asset allocation might require some fine-tuning as you navigate different phases of life and adapt to the ever-changing market landscape .

Assembling the Pieces to Find Your “Ideal” Rate of Return

It’s no secret that personal finance is, well, personal. There isn’t some generic instruction manual for pinpointing the perfect rate of return for retirement (and not to mention that this “perfect” rate would change over time).

Online calculators come in handy for plugging in variables like your age, current nest egg, and monthly savings and crunching the numbers to give you an idea if you’re on the right track or if some tweaks are in order.

Nonetheless, drawing from our experience , we understand the intricacies of assembling all the pieces for a comprehensive and strategic retirement plan. We understand that, for some, figuring out what rate of return they should use for retirement planning or crafting any part of their own retirement plan can be intimidating.

If that’s you, we’d love to get to know you and see how we can help you get unstuck in planning for your future, so send us an email at info@fivepinewealth.com or give us a call at 877.333.1015 to grab some time on our calendar! We can’t wait to learn more about your goals and work together to fill in the missing pieces, guiding you toward the retirement you’ve always envisioned. 

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How to Build a Retirement Plan That Works No Matter What the Economy Does

August 14, 2025
We’re all feeling it these days: the underlying feeling of uncertainty about what lies ahead. Each day, we see headlines about inflation, Social Security’s future, or market swings. Unsurprisingly, Gallup tells us that the top three American fears have to do with money: the economy, availability/affordability of healthcare, and inflation. If you’re in your 50s and 60s, these concerns probably hit even closer to home. You’re not just thinking about the economy in general terms. You’re wondering how it will affect your specific retirement plans. Your mind likely turns to: Increasing healthcare costs – can you absorb unexpected costs on a fixed income? Inflation and market volatility – will the value of the dollar diminish your retirement savings? Social Security uncertainty – will it exist when you retire? Having enough saved – will your retirement budget hold up when the time comes? About 1 in 4 Americans over 50 are delaying retirement , and it’s not hard to understand why. 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Plan for Healthcare Costs and Insurance Transitions Healthcare expenses are frequently retirees' most underestimated cost. Add in Medicare's maze of coverage options, and it's no wonder many retirees feel unprepared. Planning for these expenses and understanding your options before you need them can prevent costly surprises that strain your fixed income. Understand Your Medicare Options If you're 65 or older: Enroll in Medicare during your Initial Enrollment Period (IEP), which begins 3 months before your 65th birthday and extends 3 months after Consider supplemental coverage options: Medigap (if you choose Original Medicare Parts A and B) Medicare Advantage (Part C) as an alternative to Original Medicare Prescription Drug Coverage (Part D), if not included in your plan If you’re under 65 and retiring, consider: COBRA coverage from your employer allows you to keep your current plan for up to 18 months, but you'll pay the full premium plus administrative fees (typically $400-$700 per person monthly) Your spouse's employer plan (if available and you're eligible) An Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plan Prepare for the end of employer-sponsored insurance coverage about a year in advance to avoid lapses in coverage. Build a Healthcare Reserve According to the 2025 Fidelity Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate , a 65-year-old individual may require approximately $172,500 in after-tax savings to cover health care expenses in retirement. Consider establishing a separate savings account specifically for medical expenses. Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), if you're eligible, offer triple tax advantages and can be particularly valuable for retirement healthcare planning. 5. Create a Flexible Retirement Budget It’s wise to reevaluate where your money is going every month so you can enjoy once-in-a-lifetime retirement opportunities fully. This, combined with an emergency fund, helps avoid lifestyle creep and the stress of unexpected expenses. Plan for the “Retirement Smile” Retirement spending tends to move in a “U” shape: higher spending in early retirement, less in the middle, and back up again towards the end. While your bucket list trips and experiences are significant expenses, they’re often one-and-done. Most people do these things early on in retirement and slow down into a more predictable financial rhythm. Towards the end of retirement, costs often increase again to cover long-term care needs. Organize Your Budget Into Categories Consider dividing your retirement expenses into essential costs (housing, utilities, healthcare), lifestyle expenses (travel, dining, hobbies), and discretionary spending (gifts, major purchases). Cover your essentials with your most reliable income sources like Social Security, while funding lifestyle expenses through portfolio withdrawals that can adjust during market downturns. How Can You Reduce Your Future Cost-of-Living? Consider ways you can capitalize on your existing assets to better position yourself for the future. If you’ve built significant home equity, downsizing or moving to a more affordable city may be a great option, as you’ll benefit from liquidity and reduced costs. Rely on A Trusted Fiduciary Financial Planner If you’re feeling anxious about the future, know this: you’re not stuck doing it on your own. With the help of a fiduciary financial planner, you can not only see if your plan holds up against inflation and economic uncertainties, but they will:  Prioritize tax-efficient retirement withdrawal strategies Strategize Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) Create a sustainable withdrawal strategy The best thing you can do for a healthy retirement is to leverage the experts. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we create comprehensive financial plans that align with your financial goals and personal values. If you'd like to discuss how these strategies might apply to your specific situation, we're here to help. Email us at info@fivepinewealth.com or call 877.333.1015 to schedule a conversation about your retirement planning needs.

40 and Catching Up: Why This Decade Could Be Your Best for Building Wealth

July 18, 2025
Your 40s arrive with a unique mix of clarity and urgency. You've likely figured out what you want from life, but suddenly retirement no longer feels like a distant concept. If you're looking at your financial situation and feeling behind, you're not alone. Many people in their 40s experience this same wake-up call. The good news is that this decade offers some of the most powerful opportunities to accelerate your wealth-building journey. Think of your 40s as your financial prime time. You're earning more than you ever have, you understand money better than in your 20s and 30s, and you still have 20-25 years to let compound growth work its magic. Instead of dwelling on what you should have done differently, let's focus on what you can do right now to make this decade count. The Reality Check: Where You Stand vs. Where You Want to Be Before exploring strategies, let's acknowledge the elephant in the room. Many financial experts recommend saving three times your annual salary by age 40. If you're reading this and thinking, "I'm nowhere near that," take a deep breath. Life happens. Maybe you started your career later, switched fields, dealt with medical expenses, helped family members, or simply prioritized other goals during your 30s. The key is to start from where you are today, not where you think you should be. Your 40s bring unique advantages: higher earning potential, greater financial discipline, and often more stable life circumstances. Many successful investors didn't hit their stride until their 40s or later. You're not behind; you're just getting started on a more intentional path. Retirement Savings Strategies That Work in Your 40s Your retirement savings strategy in your 40s should differ from someone in their 20s or 30s. You have less time but more resources, which means you need to be both aggressive and smart about your approach. First, maximize your employer's 401(k) match if you haven't already. 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Catch-Up Retirement Contributions: Start the Habit Now Once you reach 50, you can make catch-up contributions to your retirement accounts, which significantly increases your savings potential. For 2025, this means an additional $7,500 in 401(k) contributions (bringing your total to $31,000). However, you don't have to wait until 50 to think like someone making catch-up contributions. Start now by treating your savings rate as if you're already eligible for these higher limits. If you can save an extra $600 per month ($7,200 annually) starting at 45, you'll have built the habit by the time you're actually eligible for catch-up contributions. Retirement Milestones by Age 40: A New Perspective Traditional retirement milestones can be discouraging if you're starting later or if life hasn’t gone as planned. 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The Flexibility Buffer : Your 40s are a great time to build financial flexibility. This means having investments outside of retirement accounts that you can access without penalties, creating multiple income streams, and maintaining career skills that keep you marketable. Insurance: Life and disability insurance coverage should reflect your current income and family needs. Estate Planning : A basic will, power of attorney, and healthcare directive should be in place. Making Your Peak Earning Years Count Your 40s often represent your peak earning years, and how you manage this increased income will significantly impact your financial future. The temptation to inflate your lifestyle with every raise is real, but this decade calls for more strategic thinking. Consider implementing a "pay yourself first" approach where you immediately redirect any income increases to savings and investments. If you get a $5,000 raise, automatically increase your 401(k) contribution by $3,000 and your taxable investment account by $2,000. You'll barely notice the difference in your take-home pay, but you will thank yourself in the future. This is also the time to think seriously about additional income streams. Whether it's consulting in your field, starting a side business, or investing in rental real estate, diversifying your income sources provides security and potential for acceleration. Building Wealth Beyond Retirement Accounts While retirement accounts are crucial, they shouldn't be your only wealth-building tool. Your 40s are an excellent time to diversify your investment approach and build wealth that's accessible before traditional retirement age. Consider opening a taxable investment account if you haven't already done so. This provides flexibility and liquidity while still offering growth potential. Focus on tax-efficient investments, such as index funds, and consider holding dividend-paying stocks or REITs for their income potential. Real estate can be particularly powerful in your 40s. Whether it's paying off your primary residence early, investing in rental properties, or exploring REITs, real estate adds diversification and potential inflation protection to your portfolio. Don’t Forget the “You” Factor We’d be remiss not to mention this: life in your 40s is busy. You might be managing aging parents, teenagers, or a toddler (or all three). You may be helping your partner through a career change or navigating one yourself. It’s a lot. Which is precisely why intentional financial planning matters now more than ever. You don’t need to do it perfectly. You just need a plan that’s rooted in your real life — your values, your vision, and your goals. A good financial advisor can help you prioritize, simplify, and clarify the next best steps, even if you feel like you’ve fallen behind. Ready to Create Your Personal Financial Strategy? Feeling overwhelmed by all the options and strategies available? You don't have to navigate this journey alone. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we specialize in helping individuals and families in their 40s and beyond create comprehensive financial plans that align with their goals and circumstances. Whether you're looking to maximize your retirement savings, explore catch-up strategies, or build a diversified investment portfolio, our team can help you develop a personalized approach tailored to your situation. We work with clients at various stages of their financial journey, from those just getting serious about retirement planning to those with substantial assets seeking to optimize their strategies. Don't let another year pass wondering if you're on the right track. Schedule a conversation with our team to discuss your financial goals and explore how we can help you make the most of your financial prime time.