Politics and the Economy: What Investors Need to Know This Election Year

November 1, 2024

As we wind down another election cycle, many clients have asked how the upcoming election might impact their investments. It’s a great question. Fortunately, the market has weathered plenty of elections before, and history can help us understand what might be in store for portfolios, regardless of who wins.


So, let’s examine how markets tend to behave during election cycles and discuss some strategies for staying prepared.


Politics and the Economy


The relationship between politics and the economy can be complicated but often less dramatic than headlines suggest. Many investors assume political changes will lead to wild economic swings, but that’s rarely true. While economic conditions can influence election outcomes, they don’t have the impact many think they will have. 


The Presidential Cycle Theory


You may have heard of the “Presidential Cycle Theory,” which suggests that stock markets follow a predictable pattern based on the four-year presidential term. According to this theory:


  1. The first two years after an election often show slower growth or market declines.

  2. The third and fourth years tend to be stronger as the incumbent administration implements policies to boost the economy before the next election.


While this pattern has sometimes held true, it’s far from a hard and fast rule. Many other factors, including global economic conditions, technological advancements, and unforeseen events (e.g., COVID-19), can have a much more significant impact on the economy than election cycles.


Long-Term Economic Trends


Looking at the bigger picture, we know long-term economic trends often go beyond political parties and administrations. Factors such as demographic shifts, technological innovation, and global trade patterns typically have a more lasting impact on the economy than short-term political changes.


For example, the rise of the digital economy and the increasing importance of intellectual property have been transforming our economic landscape for decades, regardless of which party has been in power.


Politics and the Stock Market


Investors may react to polls, debates, and election results, causing temporary fluctuations in stock prices. This is often due to uncertainty about future policies and their potential impact on different sectors of the economy.


Short-Term Volatility


It’s true that elections can create short-term volatility in the stock market. Volatility often increases in the months leading up to an election, but these swings are usually temporary. The stock market tends to “normalize” shortly after election results are in, as it processes the new information and looks ahead.


It’s crucial to remember that these short-term movements don’t necessarily reflect long-term trends or fundamentals. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” These are wise words.


Sector Sensitivities


Political outcomes can affect various sectors of the economy in different ways. For instance:


  • Healthcare stocks might be more volatile during elections when healthcare reform is a major issue.
  • Energy companies could see fluctuations based on candidates’ stances on environmental regulations or fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Defense contractors might be affected by discussions about military spending.


As an investor or business owner, it’s a good idea to consider how potential policy changes might impact your specific investments or industry.


The Market’s Resilience


Even though the market may experience some short-term volatility, history shows that it has been remarkably resilient to political changes over the long term. Looking at market performance over decades, we see a general upward trend that has persisted through the administrations of both major political parties.


This resilience is a testament to American businesses and the U.S. economy’s long-term growth potential. It also reminds us whyFive Pine Wealth Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective when it comes to investing.


What Should You Prepare For?


Given what we know about market behavior during election years, here are some key strategies for you to consider to help you prepare your portfolio:


1. Stay Focused on Your Long-term Goals


The most important thing is to keep your long-term financial goals in mind. Don’t let short-term market movements or political noise distract you from your overall investment strategy. For example, if you’re nearing retirement, your focus should be on ensuring you have the right mix of assets to provide income and stability, regardless of election outcomes.


2. Diversify Your Portfolio


Diversification is always important but can be even more crucial during potentially volatile periods. Spreading your investments across different asset classes, sectors, and even geographic regions can help you mitigate the impact of election-related volatility on your overall portfolio.


3. Consider Defensive Strategies


If you’re particularly concerned about short-term volatility, consider implementing some defensive strategies. Increasing your allocation to more stable, dividend-paying stocks or adding some exposure to bonds or other fixed-income investments may be a strategy to consider.


4. Look for Opportunities


Some investors see elections as a time of risk, while others see opportunities. If you have the risk tolerance and liquidity, you might consider setting aside some capital to take advantage of any election-related dips in the market.


5. Stay Informed, But Don’t Overreact


It’s important to stay informed about policy proposals that could affect your investments or business, but be careful not to overreact to every poll or piece of news. Many campaign promises will never become reality, and the actual impact of new policies often differs from initial expectations.


6. Consider Tax Planning


Tax laws could change depending on the election outcome. While making major financial decisions based on potential future tax changes is generally not advisable, it’s wise to discuss possible scenarios with your financial advisor and tax professional.


The Bottom Line


Market behavior during election years reminds us that while headlines may be attention-grabbing, they rarely tell the whole story. Elections can create some short-term market volatility but should not undermine a well-thought-out, long-term investment strategy. At Five Pine Wealth Management, we believe in focusing on the factors we can control: diversification, risk management, and aligning your portfolio with your long-term goals.


Successful investing is about time in the market, not timing the market. The broader market is remarkably resilient in the face of political shifts, and by focusing on the fundamentals, investors can feel confident about their strategy regardless of who wins. When you stay the course with a balanced, goal-oriented approach, you can handle any bumps along the way.


Ready to Review Your Investment Strategy?


If you’re concerned about how the upcoming election might impact your portfolio or if you’d simply like to review your current investment strategy, we can help. Five Pine Wealth Management specializes in creating personalized financial plans to weather various market conditions and help you achieve your long-term goals.


Don’t let election-year uncertainty keep you up at night. Email or call us at 877-333-1015 to schedule a meeting with one of our experienced advisors today. We’ll work with you to ensure that your portfolio is well-positioned for the future.


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When Saving Money Starts Getting in the Way of Living

May 21, 2026
Key Takeaways Saving money is important, but constantly postponing meaningful experiences can leave you financially secure and personally unfulfilled. Fear, habit, and identity often play a bigger role in spending decisions than numbers do. A healthy financial plan should support both your future security and your ability to enjoy life along the way. Imagine you’ve saved diligently for decades. You have a healthy income, growing retirement accounts, manageable debt, and investment balances that continue climbing year after year. Yet, somewhere in the back of your mind, a voice keeps saying, “Not enough.” So you hold off on the vacation or skip the kitchen renovation. You tell yourself you will spend more freely later, once things feel more certain. You keep asking yourself the same question, “Can we really afford this?” Sometimes the answer is yes by every objective financial measure, but emotionally, it still feels uncomfortable. For years, personal finance advice has focused heavily on the dangers of overspending. Save more. Spend less. Delay gratification. Avoid lifestyle creep. That advice absolutely matters. Many people would benefit from stronger saving habits. But there is another side of the equation that does not get discussed enough. Some people become so good at saving that they forget what the money was for in the first place. Am I Saving Too Much?  This question sounds almost absurd, and many people feel uncomfortable asking it. In our culture, saving is viewed as responsible and disciplined. Spending often gets framed as careless or indulgent. So when someone continues accumulating wealth year after year, nobody really raises concerns. But over-saving can create its own problems. We have worked with people who consistently save large percentages of their income while postponing almost everything meaningful to them. They delay vacations. Put hobbies on hold. Continue working in stressful jobs long after they financially need to. They keep waiting for some future point where they will finally feel safe enough to enjoy what they built. The challenge is that “enough” can become a moving target. As portfolios grow, lifestyles usually grow too. Concerns about inflation, healthcare costs, market volatility, taxes, and longevity all start competing for attention. Even financially successful people can develop a persistent fear that one wrong decision could jeopardize everything. That fear is often emotional rather than mathematical. In many cases, the numbers support far more flexibility than the person believes. The Psychology of Saving Money Saving behavior is deeply tied to emotion, identity, and the stories we tell ourselves about security. Understanding why you save the way you do is the first step toward making more intentional choices. Fear of running out is one of the most powerful drivers. Even people with substantial assets can feel that their wealth is fragile, particularly if they grew up without financial stability or lived through a major market downturn. The brain tends to overweigh dramatic losses compared to equivalent gains, which means the emotional pain of imagining a depleted account is often disproportionate to the actual probability of it happening. Habit reinforcement plays a significant role as well. If you spent 30 years in accumulation mode, consistently saving and reinvesting and growing, your financial behaviors became deeply ingrained. Transitioning from saving to spending, even intentionally, and when the numbers support it, can feel wrong at a gut level. The habits that built your wealth can work against you when the time comes to use it. Societal pressure adds another layer. High-earning professionals are often surrounded by messages that equate financial discipline with virtue. Spending on yourself can feel indulgent or even irresponsible, even when it’s neither. There is a difference between careless spending and deliberate investment in your own well-being, but the cultural script often blurs that line. For business owners and dual-income households, there is also the identity piece. When so much of your sense of self is tied to building, growing, and accumulating, shifting toward enjoyment requires a genuine psychological reorientation, not just a new budget line. Values-Based Spending Over-saving isn't fixed by spending more randomly. What actually helps is spending with intention — putting money toward things that genuinely matter to you. This is what we mean by values-based spending : aligning how money flows with what you care about. The exercise starts with a conversation about what you want your life to look like. Not the life you think you should want, and not the life your parents had or your colleagues' project, but the experiences, relationships, contributions, and comforts that would make your days feel meaningful and full. From there, a good financial plan becomes a permission structure. When your advisor can show you, concretely, that your goals are funded and your risks are managed, spending stops feeling like a threat to your security. It starts feeling like money doing what money is supposed to do. Values-based spending also helps you stop spending on things that don’t matter to you. Many high earners discover that their default expenditures have drifted away from their priorities over time. Redirecting those dollars toward what genuinely matters often feels better than a raw increase in spending. Signs You May Be Under-Living Financially A few patterns tend to show up repeatedly among chronic oversavers: You feel guilty spending money even after careful planning. Your savings goals continue increasing without a clear reason. You postpone experiences you deeply want because you “might” need the money someday. You struggle to define what financial freedom would look like for you. Your net worth keeps growing, but your day-to-day life feels largely unchanged. You continue working at a pace that negatively impacts your health or relationships, despite already being financially secure. None of these automatically means you are saving too much. But they are often signals worth examining more closely. Practical Steps to Align Your Money With Your Life Making the shift from over-saving to purposeful living does not require a dramatic overhaul. It starts with a few honest conversations and a willingness to examine some long-held assumptions. Start by revisiting your retirement projections with a financial advisor. Ask specifically what your models say about your ability to spend, not just your ability to accumulate. Many clients are surprised to find that their plan supports significantly more lifestyle spending than they had assumed. Build a "permission budget" for discretionary spending. This is not a ceiling on enjoyment but a deliberate allocation toward experiences and priorities you have identified as meaningful. Giving yourself explicit permission to spend in certain areas, backed by a sound financial plan, reduces the guilt that often accompanies even well-deserved expenditures. Consider what you are waiting for. If the answer is a number that keeps moving, or a level of certainty that financial markets will never provide, it’s worth exploring whether the hesitation is financial or psychological. A good advisor can help you separate the two. A Healthy Financial Plan Should Support Your Life A strong financial plan should create confidence, not permanent deprivation. Saving diligently is important, but there is also value in recognizing when enough may already be enough. The goal is for your spending to reflect your values, your priorities, and where you are in life right now. Because eventually, there has to be a point where the money begins serving you instead of the other way around. If you’ve been wondering whether your saving habits still align with the life you want to live, we’d love to help you think through it. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we help clients build financial plans that support both long-term security and meaningful living today. Call us at 877.333.1015 or email us at info@fivepinewealth.com to start the conversation. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Why do I feel anxious spending money even when I can afford it? A: Spending anxiety is often tied to the psychology of saving money. Past financial stress, market downturns, family experiences, and years of disciplined saving can condition people to associate spending with risk, even when their financial plan supports it. Q: Can over-saving negatively affect your quality of life? A: Yes. Constantly delaying travel, hobbies, family experiences, or personal goals in pursuit of “more” can lead to burnout, stress, and missed opportunities. Financial security matters, but so does enjoying the life your money was meant to support.

What's Inside Your 457? (And Why It Matters More Than You Think)

April 30, 2026
Key Takeaways Your 457 should work alongside your pension to support your overall retirement income plan. Many 457 plans are set on autopilot, but your investments shouldn’t stay that way as you near retirement. Understanding what you're invested in helps you make better decisions when markets move. Turning 50 is your signal to review your 457 more closely so you can check your contributions, risk level, and how it fits with your pension before retirement gets too close. Like many first responders in Washington and Idaho, you probably have a pretty solid grasp of your "Plan A." Between the WA LEOFF Plan 2 or ID PERSI, you’ve spent your career earning a guaranteed monthly pension. It’s the foundation of your retirement — the steady paycheck that arrives regardless of what the stock market does. But then there’s that "other" account. The one you’ve been tucking money into every pay period through deferred compensation. In Washington, it’s usually the Washington State Deferred Compensation Program (WSDCP); in Idaho, it’s often the State of Idaho 457(b) Plan. When we sit down with firefighters and police officers who are within 10 years of their "end of watch" date, they usually know two things about this account: how much is in it and that they’re glad they started it. But when we ask, 'What is that money actually doing?' — that question usually gets a pause. If you’re 50 or older, it’s time to move past the "set it and forget it" mentality. Let’s take a look at how your 457 works and how to make sure it’s working for you. 457 Plan Investment Options  Unlike your pension, which is managed by the state, your 457 is a “defined contribution” plan. That means the outcome depends entirely on how much you put in and how those funds are invested. A 457 plan is just a container. Think of it like a toolbox. What matters is what’s inside the box. Your account isn’t sitting in cash (at least it shouldn’t be). It’s invested in a mix of underlying funds, usually including: Stock funds (equities): These are your growth engines. They tend to go up over time, but they can be volatile. These could be U.S. stock funds or international funds. Bond funds (fixed income): These provide stability and income, but with historically reduced long-term returns. Stable value or cash equivalents: Lower risk, but also lower growth. Most public service 457 plans in the Northwest offer a menu of these options. Some people choose to build their own mix, while others choose a single “all-in-one” fund and let it do the work. This brings us to the most common choice we see… What is a Target-Date Fund? A Target-Date Fund (TDF) is designed to be a one-stop shop. The “date” in the name is the year the fund assumes you will retire. If you plan to hang up the uniform in 2030, you’d likely be in a 2030 fund. A TDF automatically shifts its risk level as you get closer to that date. This is called the glide path . When you are 20 years away from retirement, the fund is aggressive. It buys mostly stocks because you have time to recover from market crashes. As you get closer to the target year, the fund manager automatically “glides” the investments away from risky stocks and into “safer” bonds and cash. TDFs are built for the “average” American worker who relies solely on Social Security and a 401(k), but you aren’t the average worker. You have a LEOFF or PERSI pension. Because your pension acts like a “super bond” (stable, guaranteed income), being too conservative in your 457 might hinder your growth. Conversely, if you’re planning to retire at 53 (common for LEOFF 2) but your fund is target age 65, you might be taking way more risk than you realize. It’s also important to note that two funds with the same year, for example, 2035, can have very different levels of risk depending on the provider. One may still hold 60% in stocks near retirement, while another might be closer to 40%. How Risk Changes as Retirement Approaches In your 20s, 30s, and even early 40s, “risk” is your friend. Risk is what grows a $50,000 account into a $500,000 account. However, as you approach the age of 50, the definition of risk changes. That’s because you’re entering what we call the “retirement red zone,” roughly five years before and five years after your retirement date. This is when: Your portfolio is at its largest You have less time to recover from downturns You may soon rely on the money for income We look at two specific types of risk for our clients: Sequence of Returns Risk: The risk that a market crash occurs just as you start taking withdrawals. If the market drops 20% the year you retire, and you start pulling money out to travel or pay off the mortgage, your account may never recover. Inflation Risk: If you get scared and move everything into the “Fixed Account” or “Stable Value Fund,” you might not lose money, but you’ll lose purchasing power. If your account earns 2% but the cost of living goes up by 4%, you’re technically getting poorer every year. Finding the “Goldilocks” zone — not too hot, not too cold — is the primary job of a pre-retiree. The Age 50 Checklist Once you’re in your 50s, it’s time to stop running on autopilot and take a closer look at your 457. Check Your “Catch-Up” Options In 2026, the standard 457 contribution limit is $24,500; however, once you’re 50, you can add an extra $8,000 in “Age 50 Catch Up” contributions. Even better, if you're within three years of your normal retirement age and haven’t maxed out your contributions in previous years, you may be able to contribute up to double the normal limit ($49,000). This is a massive boost for your savings. Diversify Your Tax Buckets Most first responders have their money in a Traditional 457, meaning you get a tax break now but pay taxes when you take the money out. Both Washington and Idaho offer Roth 457 options. With a Roth, you pay the tax today, but the money grows and comes out tax-free. For high-earners who expect their pension to keep them in a higher tax bracket during retirement, having a “tax-free” bucket of money can be helpful. Coordinate With Your Pension If your LEOFF or PERSI pension covers 70% of your needed income, your 457 can afford to be a bit more aggressive in fighting inflation. If you plan to use your 457 to bridge the gap until you collect Social Security, that money needs to be protected differently. Let’s Take a Look Together At Five Pine Wealth Management, we work with first responders in Washington and Idaho who are approaching retirement and want clarity around their financial picture. We understand how LEOFF Plan 2 and PERSI fit into the bigger picture, and how your 457 can support the retirement you’ve worked hard to build. If you’d like help understanding what you’re invested in, we’d be happy to take a look with you. You can email or call us at 877.333.1015 to schedule. We’d welcome the conversation. You’ve spent your career looking out for the community; let us help you look out for your future. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q: Is a Target-Date Fund enough for my 457 plan? A: For many people, it is, but as you get closer to retirement, it’s important to review whether the fund’s risk level matches your timeline and overall financial picture. Q: Is there a penalty for taking money out before age 59½? A: No. Unlike a 401(k), the 457 plan has no 10% early withdrawal penalty if you leave your employer, making it an ideal tool for first responders retiring in their early 50s. Q: Should I choose a Target-Date Fund or build my own portfolio in a 457? A: Target-date funds offer simplicity, but building your own portfolio allows for more customization. If you have a pension that already provides a stable income, building your own could be a good option.