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Politics and the Economy: What Investors Need to Know This Election Year

November 1, 2024

As we wind down another election cycle, many clients have asked how the upcoming election might impact their investments. It’s a great question. Fortunately, the market has weathered plenty of elections before, and history can help us understand what might be in store for portfolios, regardless of who wins.


So, let’s examine how markets tend to behave during election cycles and discuss some strategies for staying prepared.


Politics and the Economy


The relationship between politics and the economy can be complicated but often less dramatic than headlines suggest. Many investors assume political changes will lead to wild economic swings, but that’s rarely true. While economic conditions can influence election outcomes, they don’t have the impact many think they will have. 


The Presidential Cycle Theory


You may have heard of the “Presidential Cycle Theory,” which suggests that stock markets follow a predictable pattern based on the four-year presidential term. According to this theory:


  1. The first two years after an election often show slower growth or market declines.

  2. The third and fourth years tend to be stronger as the incumbent administration implements policies to boost the economy before the next election.


While this pattern has sometimes held true, it’s far from a hard and fast rule. Many other factors, including global economic conditions, technological advancements, and unforeseen events (e.g., COVID-19), can have a much more significant impact on the economy than election cycles.


Long-Term Economic Trends


Looking at the bigger picture, we know long-term economic trends often go beyond political parties and administrations. Factors such as demographic shifts, technological innovation, and global trade patterns typically have a more lasting impact on the economy than short-term political changes.


For example, the rise of the digital economy and the increasing importance of intellectual property have been transforming our economic landscape for decades, regardless of which party has been in power.


Politics and the Stock Market


Investors may react to polls, debates, and election results, causing temporary fluctuations in stock prices. This is often due to uncertainty about future policies and their potential impact on different sectors of the economy.


Short-Term Volatility


It’s true that elections can create short-term volatility in the stock market. Volatility often increases in the months leading up to an election, but these swings are usually temporary. The stock market tends to “normalize” shortly after election results are in, as it processes the new information and looks ahead.


It’s crucial to remember that these short-term movements don’t necessarily reflect long-term trends or fundamentals. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” These are wise words.


Sector Sensitivities


Political outcomes can affect various sectors of the economy in different ways. For instance:


  • Healthcare stocks might be more volatile during elections when healthcare reform is a major issue.
  • Energy companies could see fluctuations based on candidates’ stances on environmental regulations or fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Defense contractors might be affected by discussions about military spending.


As an investor or business owner, it’s a good idea to consider how potential policy changes might impact your specific investments or industry.


The Market’s Resilience


Even though the market may experience some short-term volatility, history shows that it has been remarkably resilient to political changes over the long term. Looking at market performance over decades, we see a general upward trend that has persisted through the administrations of both major political parties.


This resilience is a testament to American businesses and the U.S. economy’s long-term growth potential. It also reminds us whyFive Pine Wealth Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective when it comes to investing.


What Should You Prepare For?


Given what we know about market behavior during election years, here are some key strategies for you to consider to help you prepare your portfolio:


1. Stay Focused on Your Long-term Goals


The most important thing is to keep your long-term financial goals in mind. Don’t let short-term market movements or political noise distract you from your overall investment strategy. For example, if you’re nearing retirement, your focus should be on ensuring you have the right mix of assets to provide income and stability, regardless of election outcomes.


2. Diversify Your Portfolio


Diversification is always important but can be even more crucial during potentially volatile periods. Spreading your investments across different asset classes, sectors, and even geographic regions can help you mitigate the impact of election-related volatility on your overall portfolio.


3. Consider Defensive Strategies


If you’re particularly concerned about short-term volatility, consider implementing some defensive strategies. Increasing your allocation to more stable, dividend-paying stocks or adding some exposure to bonds or other fixed-income investments may be a strategy to consider.


4. Look for Opportunities


Some investors see elections as a time of risk, while others see opportunities. If you have the risk tolerance and liquidity, you might consider setting aside some capital to take advantage of any election-related dips in the market.


5. Stay Informed, But Don’t Overreact


It’s important to stay informed about policy proposals that could affect your investments or business, but be careful not to overreact to every poll or piece of news. Many campaign promises will never become reality, and the actual impact of new policies often differs from initial expectations.


6. Consider Tax Planning


Tax laws could change depending on the election outcome. While making major financial decisions based on potential future tax changes is generally not advisable, it’s wise to discuss possible scenarios with your financial advisor and tax professional.


The Bottom Line


Market behavior during election years reminds us that while headlines may be attention-grabbing, they rarely tell the whole story. Elections can create some short-term market volatility but should not undermine a well-thought-out, long-term investment strategy. At Five Pine Wealth Management, we believe in focusing on the factors we can control: diversification, risk management, and aligning your portfolio with your long-term goals.


Successful investing is about time in the market, not timing the market. The broader market is remarkably resilient in the face of political shifts, and by focusing on the fundamentals, investors can feel confident about their strategy regardless of who wins. When you stay the course with a balanced, goal-oriented approach, you can handle any bumps along the way.


Ready to Review Your Investment Strategy?


If you’re concerned about how the upcoming election might impact your portfolio or if you’d simply like to review your current investment strategy, we can help. Five Pine Wealth Management specializes in creating personalized financial plans to weather various market conditions and help you achieve your long-term goals.


Don’t let election-year uncertainty keep you up at night. Email or call us at 877-333-1015 to schedule a meeting with one of our experienced advisors today. We’ll work with you to ensure that your portfolio is well-positioned for the future.

40 and Catching Up: Why This Decade Could Be Your Best for Building Wealth

July 18, 2025
Your 40s arrive with a unique mix of clarity and urgency. You've likely figured out what you want from life, but suddenly retirement no longer feels like a distant concept. If you're looking at your financial situation and feeling behind, you're not alone. Many people in their 40s experience this same wake-up call. The good news is that this decade offers some of the most powerful opportunities to accelerate your wealth-building journey. Think of your 40s as your financial prime time. You're earning more than you ever have, you understand money better than in your 20s and 30s, and you still have 20-25 years to let compound growth work its magic. Instead of dwelling on what you should have done differently, let's focus on what you can do right now to make this decade count. The Reality Check: Where You Stand vs. Where You Want to Be Before exploring strategies, let's acknowledge the elephant in the room. Many financial experts recommend saving three times your annual salary by age 40. If you're reading this and thinking, "I'm nowhere near that," take a deep breath. Life happens. Maybe you started your career later, switched fields, dealt with medical expenses, helped family members, or simply prioritized other goals during your 30s. The key is to start from where you are today, not where you think you should be. Your 40s bring unique advantages: higher earning potential, greater financial discipline, and often more stable life circumstances. Many successful investors didn't hit their stride until their 40s or later. You're not behind; you're just getting started on a more intentional path. Retirement Savings Strategies That Work in Your 40s Your retirement savings strategy in your 40s should differ from someone in their 20s or 30s. You have less time but more resources, which means you need to be both aggressive and smart about your approach. First, maximize your employer's 401(k) match if you haven't already. This is free money, and missing out on it is like leaving cash on the table. Additionally, consider increasing your contribution rate by 1-2% each year, or whenever you receive a raise. This gradual approach makes the adjustment less painful while significantly boosting your long-term savings. Roth conversions become particularly powerful in your 40s. If you expect to be in a higher tax bracket in retirement or if you want to leave tax-free money to heirs, converting some traditional IRA or 401(k) funds to Roth accounts can be a smart move. The key is to do this strategically, perhaps in years when your income is temporarily lower or when you can manage the tax impact. Don't overlook the power of diversification beyond your 401(k). A taxable investment account gives you flexibility and access to your money before age 59½ without penalties. This can be crucial for achieving early retirement goals or covering major expenses that may arise before the traditional retirement age. Catch-Up Retirement Contributions: Start the Habit Now Once you reach 50, you can make catch-up contributions to your retirement accounts, which significantly increases your savings potential. For 2025, this means an additional $7,500 in 401(k) contributions (bringing your total to $31,000). However, you don't have to wait until 50 to think like someone making catch-up contributions. Start now by treating your savings rate as if you're already eligible for these higher limits. If you can save an extra $600 per month ($7,200 annually) starting at 45, you'll have built the habit by the time you're actually eligible for catch-up contributions. Retirement Milestones by Age 40: A New Perspective Traditional retirement milestones can be discouraging if you're starting later or if life hasn’t gone as planned. Instead of focusing on arbitrary multiples of your salary, consider these more practical benchmarks for your 40s: The Emergency Fund Foundation : Before aggressively pursuing retirement savings, ensure you have a solid emergency fund in place. This prevents you from having to tap retirement accounts during tough times. Aim for 3-6 months of expenses, adjusted for your specific situation. The Debt Freedom Focus : High-interest debt can quickly derail retirement plans. If you're carrying credit card debt or other high-interest obligations, addressing these might be more valuable than maximizing retirement contributions beyond your employer match. The Income Replacement Goal : Rather than focusing on net worth multiples, think about what percentage of your current income you're on track to replace in retirement. A good target is 70-80% of your pre-retirement income, but this depends on your lifestyle and retirement plans. The Flexibility Buffer : Your 40s are a great time to build financial flexibility. This means having investments outside of retirement accounts that you can access without penalties, creating multiple income streams, and maintaining career skills that keep you marketable. Insurance: Life and disability insurance coverage should reflect your current income and family needs. Estate Planning : A basic will, power of attorney, and healthcare directive should be in place. Making Your Peak Earning Years Count Your 40s often represent your peak earning years, and how you manage this increased income will significantly impact your financial future. The temptation to inflate your lifestyle with every raise is real, but this decade calls for more strategic thinking. Consider implementing a "pay yourself first" approach where you immediately redirect any income increases to savings and investments. If you get a $5,000 raise, automatically increase your 401(k) contribution by $3,000 and your taxable investment account by $2,000. You'll barely notice the difference in your take-home pay, but you will thank yourself in the future. This is also the time to think seriously about additional income streams. Whether it's consulting in your field, starting a side business, or investing in rental real estate, diversifying your income sources provides security and potential for acceleration. Building Wealth Beyond Retirement Accounts While retirement accounts are crucial, they shouldn't be your only wealth-building tool. Your 40s are an excellent time to diversify your investment approach and build wealth that's accessible before traditional retirement age. Consider opening a taxable investment account if you haven't already done so. This provides flexibility and liquidity while still offering growth potential. Focus on tax-efficient investments, such as index funds, and consider holding dividend-paying stocks or REITs for their income potential. Real estate can be particularly powerful in your 40s. Whether it's paying off your primary residence early, investing in rental properties, or exploring REITs, real estate adds diversification and potential inflation protection to your portfolio. Don’t Forget the “You” Factor We’d be remiss not to mention this: life in your 40s is busy. You might be managing aging parents, teenagers, or a toddler (or all three). You may be helping your partner through a career change or navigating one yourself. It’s a lot. Which is precisely why intentional financial planning matters now more than ever. You don’t need to do it perfectly. You just need a plan that’s rooted in your real life — your values, your vision, and your goals. A good financial advisor can help you prioritize, simplify, and clarify the next best steps, even if you feel like you’ve fallen behind. Ready to Create Your Personal Financial Strategy? Feeling overwhelmed by all the options and strategies available? You don't have to navigate this journey alone. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we specialize in helping individuals and families in their 40s and beyond create comprehensive financial plans that align with their goals and circumstances. Whether you're looking to maximize your retirement savings, explore catch-up strategies, or build a diversified investment portfolio, our team can help you develop a personalized approach tailored to your situation. We work with clients at various stages of their financial journey, from those just getting serious about retirement planning to those with substantial assets seeking to optimize their strategies. Don't let another year pass wondering if you're on the right track. Schedule a conversation with our team to discuss your financial goals and explore how we can help you make the most of your financial prime time.

The Best Long-Term Investment Strategy? Stay Invested, Stay Calm

June 20, 2025
When markets are calm, investing can feel easy. You contribute regularly, watch your portfolio grow, and start picturing that future vacation home or early retirement. But when markets get volatile, everything changes. Suddenly, headlines are full of dire warnings. Account balances fluctuate. And the urge to do something can feel overwhelming. At Five Pine Wealth Management , we understand how emotional investing can become during periods of market uncertainty. One of the most important things we do as fiduciary financial planners is to help our clients stay grounded when the market gets choppy. Let’s walk you through how we approach investment risk management and why having a clear, disciplined philosophy matters most when volatility strikes. Our Philosophy: Think Long-Term, Not Next Week When markets are moving fast, it is easy to think that the “best long-term investment strategy” must involve taking action to avoid losses or chase gains. The reality is usually the opposite. Reacting to market noise can often do more harm than good. In fact, one of the greatest risks to long-term returns is making emotional decisions in response to short-term events. We coach our clients to stay focused on their long-term financial plans and goals. Volatility is a feature of markets, not a flaw. By designing portfolios with realistic expectations for ups and downs, we help clients stay invested through all market environments. Here is what this looks like in practice: We use broadly diversified portfolios built around low-cost ETFs. We focus on asset allocation aligned with your time horizon, goals, and risk tolerance. We do not chase trends or attempt to time the market. We regularly review and rebalance portfolios based on your financial plan, not headlines. In short, your portfolio is designed to ride out volatility, not avoid it entirely. Fiduciary Financial Planning: Advice in Your Best Interest There is a great deal of noise in the financial world, particularly during turbulent market conditions. One of the most significant ways we help cut through it is by being fiduciary financial planners. That means we are legally and ethically obligated to act in your best interest at all times. We are also fee-only advisors. We do not receive commissions for recommending one investment over another. Our primary agenda is to help you reach your goals. During market volatility, this matters more than ever. Too many investors fall prey to sales pitches disguised as “solutions” to market risk. We focus on education and long-term planning rather than quick fixes. Being a fiduciary allows us to focus on what serves you best: Keeping you aligned with your personal goals and values Helping you tune out market noise and media hype Offering sound, research-backed guidance without conflicts of interest Your Coach Through Emotional Market Cycles One of our most important roles as financial planners is helping clients manage the psychological side of investing. It is one thing to know, intellectually, that markets will recover over time. It is another thing to watch your portfolio drop 15% and not feel anxious. Market downturns create powerful emotions. Fear. Doubt. Sometimes, even panic. As humans, our instinct is to take action to relieve those feelings, even when the logical course is to stay invested. That is where we come in. We help coach clients through these moments so they can avoid costly mistakes like: Selling during a downturn and locking in losses Chasing the next hot trend during a rebound Over-concentration in “safe” assets out of fear We remind clients that volatility is a normal part of the market. Markets have experienced recessions, wars, pandemics, and political turmoil before. They will again. Over time, markets have historically rewarded patient investors who stayed the course. When you work with us, you gain a trusted partner who is here to talk through your concerns, offer perspective, and help you make decisions that serve your long-term goals. Why Staying the Course Actually Works It may seem counterintuitive, but reducing activity during market volatility often yields better outcomes. Consider this: From 1999 through 2018, if an investor missed just the 10 best days in the S&P 500, their overall return would have been cut nearly in half . Many of the best market days happen very close to the worst ones. Trying to time the market is a challenging task, even for seasoned professionals. By maintaining a disciplined investment approach and staying fully invested, you ensure that you are there for both the recoveries and the long-term growth that markets provide. Our role is to help you build a portfolio designed for precisely this kind of staying power. We structure your investment mix to help you weather market cycles without having to guess what will happen next. Educating Clients About Normal Market Cycles Another key aspect of fiduciary financial planning is helping clients understand what is “normal” in the market. Volatility is not a sign that something is broken. It is a natural part of how markets function. In fact, without volatility, markets would not offer the returns that make long-term investing so powerful. We work with clients to help them see: Why some years will be down, but others will be very strong Why trying to avoid all losses is neither realistic nor necessary How staying invested through cycles often leads to far better outcomes than jumping in and out of the market Perspective is everything . The more you understand market behavior, the less likely you are to make emotional decisions during downturns. Different Stages, Same Principles Our approach also adapts to the varying needs of clients at different stages of their financial journey. For clients in their 40s to 60s: We may focus on prudently preserving and growing wealth. We help manage sequence-of-returns risk as you approach retirement. We may emphasize income planning and portfolio sustainability. We ensure that your investment mix aligns with your evolving goals and risk tolerance. For clients in their 30s: We provide education about typical market cycles (especially if this is their first experience with volatility). We coach clients to take advantage of their longer time horizons. We help younger investors see downturns as buying opportunities, not threats. In all cases, we are committed to helping clients invest with confidence, regardless of the headlines. Ready to Build a More Resilient Investment Strategy? Market volatility will always be part of investing, but it doesn't have to derail your financial goals. As your trusted financial advisor Coeur d'Alene team, we're here to help you navigate market uncertainty with confidence through our comprehensive financial planning approach. Contact Five Pine Wealth Management today to discuss how our investment philosophy and comprehensive financial planning approach can help you navigate market uncertainty with confidence. To see how we can help you support your financial goals, send us an email or call us at 877.333.1015.  Whether you're looking to preserve the wealth you've already accumulated or build a foundation for long-term growth, our team has the experience and commitment to help you stay focused on what matters most: achieving your financial goals.